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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Crude Oil(NYM) as of Sep 29, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Tested Years   37 38 39 39 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Closed Higher   20 19 23 28 27 20 20 25 21 21 20
Exceeded High   19 17 22 25 23 14 18 23 16 19 9
Scenario Percentage   95% 89% 96% 89% 85% 70% 90% 92% 76% 90% 45%
Avg Max Increase   10.67% 12.06% 10.38% 9.65% 8.40% 11.31% 9.38% 11.68% 12.16% 7.82% 6.12%
Max Increase   26.11% 33.84% 27.43% 20.39% 31.94% 19.60% 21.06% 75.72% 50.17% 22.54% 10.41%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 13 18 18 15 17 16 19 16 11 10
Avg Max Decline   -1.85% -2.16% -1.93% -2.80% -2.43% -1.63% -2.43% -2.86% -3.27% -3.38% -1.19%
Max Decline   -7.77% -9.97% -13.40% -10.42% -5.98% -6.66% -14.44% -14.62% -14.04% -14.87% -4.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline   9 7 8 7 9 5 7 8 9 5 1
2023 Contract Condition           Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action           No   Yes Yes Yes Not Yet  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Tested Years   37 38 39 39 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Closed Lower   17 19 16 11 13 20 20 14 19 19 20
Penetrated Low   12 9 8 6 6 14 14 12 10 16 15
Scenario Percentage   71% 47% 50% 55% 46% 70% 70% 86% 53% 84% 75%
Avg Max Decline   14.92% 17.32% 13.90% 12.41% 6.94% 9.16% 11.56% 12.04% 15.81% 12.61% 8.41%
Max Decline   32.91% 44.76% 44.85% 24.63% 14.84% 21.30% 35.47% 27.64% 47.30% 45.47% 19.38%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 20 15 16 20 18 17 14 18 10 12
Avg Max Increase   -2.44% -2.78% -2.31% -4.75% -3.25% -1.33% -2.42% -2.81% -3.24% -2.54% -2.59%
Max Increase   -9.13% -6.40% -6.97% -10.99% -7.29% -5.62% -8.98% -16.88% -17.88% -12.86% -5.84%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 5 7 8 11 4 9 11 13 5 3
2023 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes          
Action   No Yes Yes Yes   No          
High 81.47 79.85 79.99 77.83 78.27 79.22 73.96 73.40 80.51 82.85 92.48  
Low 72.15 70.57 72.03 71.26 64.13 71.57 63.00 66.36 69.32 77.03 82.09  
Close/Last 77.92 77.31 76.69 74.59 73.55 74.11 67.34 70.40 80.35 82.26 88.80  

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