MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for December Crude Oil(NYM) as of Sep 29, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		37	38	39	39	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
Closed Higher		20	19	23	28	27	20	20	25	21	21	20
Exceeded High		19	17	22	25	23	14	18	23	16	19	9
Scenario Percentage		95%	89%	96%	89%	85%	70%	90%	92%	76%	90%	45%
Avg Max Increase		10.67%	12.06%	10.38%	9.65%	8.40%	11.31%	9.38%	11.68%	12.16%	7.82%	6.12%
Max Increase		26.11%	33.84%	27.43%	20.39%	31.94%	19.60%	21.06%	75.72%	50.17%	22.54%	10.41%
Avg Days To Max Increase		18	13	18	18	15	17	16	19	16	11	10
Avg Max Decline		-1.85%	-2.16%	-1.93%	-2.80%	-2.43%	-1.63%	-2.43%	-2.86%	-3.27%	-3.38%	-1.19%
Max Decline		-7.77%	-9.97%	-13.40%	-10.42%	-5.98%	-6.66%	-14.44%	-14.62%	-14.04%	-14.87%	-4.31%
Avg Days to Max Decline		9	7	8	7	9	5	7	8	9	5	1
2023 Contract Condition						Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action						No		Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct
Tested Years		37	38	39	39	40	40	40	40	40	40	40
Closed Lower		17	19	16	11	13	20	20	14	19	19	20
Penetrated Low		12	9	8	6	6	14	14	12	10	16	15
Scenario Percentage		71%	47%	50%	55%	46%	70%	70%	86%	53%	84%	75%
Avg Max Decline		14.92%	17.32%	13.90%	12.41%	6.94%	9.16%	11.56%	12.04%	15.81%	12.61%	8.41%
Max Decline		32.91%	44.76%	44.85%	24.63%	14.84%	21.30%	35.47%	27.64%	47.30%	45.47%	19.38%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	20	15	16	20	18	17	14	18	10	12
Avg Max Increase		-2.44%	-2.78%	-2.31%	-4.75%	-3.25%	-1.33%	-2.42%	-2.81%	-3.24%	-2.54%	-2.59%
Max Increase		-9.13%	-6.40%	-6.97%	-10.99%	-7.29%	-5.62%	-8.98%	-16.88%	-17.88%	-12.86%	-5.84%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	5	7	8	11	4	9	11	13	5	3
2023 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		No	Yes	Yes	Yes		No
High	81.47	79.85	79.99	77.83	78.27	79.22	73.96	73.40	80.51	82.85	92.48
Low	72.15	70.57	72.03	71.26	64.13	71.57	63.00	66.36	69.32	77.03	82.09
Close/Last	77.92	77.31	76.69	74.59	73.55	74.11	67.34	70.40	80.35	82.26	88.80