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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Crude Oil(NYM) as of May 09, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   37 38 39 40 40 40 41 41 41 41 41
Closed Higher   19 21 24 23 20 18 18 19 22 25 26
Exceeded High   15 19 21 18 17 12 16 19 21 22 21
Scenario Percentage   79% 90% 88% 78% 85% 67% 89% 100% 95% 88% 81%
Avg Max Increase   9.40% 8.17% 8.98% 9.79% 7.36% 10.54% 13.25% 12.36% 14.53% 14.43% 8.68%
Max Increase   19.67% 19.00% 47.75% 33.91% 22.30% 17.51% 24.18% 33.13% 48.65% 43.26% 25.31%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 19 21 14 14 23 14 17 16 13 14
Avg Max Decline   -1.37% -1.90% -1.96% -1.62% -2.31% -2.41% -2.08% -2.75% -3.67% -2.73% -2.22%
Max Decline   -7.04% -11.71% -12.77% -7.53% -11.42% -9.01% -8.59% -10.12% -12.77% -15.55% -8.09%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 7 10 6 5 9 5 9 9 7 3
2024 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes
Action     Yes Yes Yes No       Yes Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar
Tested Years   37 38 39 40 40 40 41 41 41 41 41
Closed Lower   18 17 15 17 20 22 23 22 19 16 15
Penetrated Low   13 13 10 10 16 21 20 13 11 8 6
Scenario Percentage   72% 76% 67% 59% 80% 95% 87% 59% 58% 50% 40%
Avg Max Decline   7.67% 9.18% 12.15% 14.30% 12.13% 12.92% 15.33% 17.10% 21.11% 20.03% 15.77%
Max Decline   17.40% 31.17% 26.20% 45.01% 48.41% 42.05% 34.38% 44.68% 62.78% 77.73% 51.12%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 15 20 17 16 18 17 19 17 15 9
Avg Max Increase   -1.04% -1.06% -1.75% -2.06% -2.47% -2.71% -2.67% -3.96% -3.36% -5.48% -9.47%
Max Increase   -6.86% -6.60% -11.04% -11.54% -13.79% -7.53% -13.18% -12.22% -12.00% -11.53% -42.24%
Avg Days to Max Increase   3 6 12 9 11 7 9 10 10 12 2
2024 Contract Condition   Yes         Yes Yes Yes      
Action   Yes         Yes Yes No      
High 76.24 71.44 70.53 77.91 79.93 84.87 83.87 80.99 76.41 78.80 78.83 83.21
Low 70.27 65.52 65.18 68.10 75.46 79.37 75.68 72.58 68.85 70.02 71.52 76.43
Close/Last 72.15 66.00 69.28 77.90 79.32 81.88 78.47 75.68 72.13 75.56 77.45 83.17

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