MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for May Crude Oil(NYM) as of May 17, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		37	38	39	40	40	40	41	41	41	41	41
Closed Higher		19	21	24	23	20	18	18	19	22	25	26
Exceeded High		15	19	21	18	17	12	16	19	21	22	21
Scenario Percentage		79%	90%	88%	78%	85%	67%	89%	100%	95%	88%	81%
Avg Max Increase		9.40%	8.17%	8.98%	9.79%	7.36%	10.54%	13.25%	12.36%	14.53%	14.43%	8.68%
Max Increase		19.67%	19.00%	47.75%	33.91%	22.30%	17.51%	24.18%	33.13%	48.65%	43.26%	25.31%
Avg Days To Max Increase		17	19	21	14	14	23	14	17	16	13	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.37%	-1.90%	-1.96%	-1.62%	-2.31%	-2.41%	-2.08%	-2.75%	-3.67%	-2.73%	-2.22%
Max Decline		-7.04%	-11.71%	-12.77%	-7.53%	-11.42%	-9.01%	-8.59%	-10.12%	-12.77%	-15.55%	-8.09%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	7	10	6	5	9	5	9	9	7	3
2024 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes
Action			Yes	Yes	Yes	No				Yes	Yes	Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar
Tested Years		37	38	39	40	40	40	41	41	41	41	41
Closed Lower		18	17	15	17	20	22	23	22	19	16	15
Penetrated Low		13	13	10	10	16	21	20	13	11	8	6
Scenario Percentage		72%	76%	67%	59%	80%	95%	87%	59%	58%	50%	40%
Avg Max Decline		7.67%	9.18%	12.15%	14.30%	12.13%	12.92%	15.33%	17.10%	21.11%	20.03%	15.77%
Max Decline		17.40%	31.17%	26.20%	45.01%	48.41%	42.05%	34.38%	44.68%	62.78%	77.73%	51.12%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	15	20	17	16	18	17	19	17	15	9
Avg Max Increase		-1.04%	-1.06%	-1.75%	-2.06%	-2.47%	-2.71%	-2.67%	-3.96%	-3.36%	-5.48%	-9.47%
Max Increase		-6.86%	-6.60%	-11.04%	-11.54%	-13.79%	-7.53%	-13.18%	-12.22%	-12.00%	-11.53%	-42.24%
Avg Days to Max Increase		3	6	12	9	11	7	9	10	10	12	2
2024 Contract Condition		Yes					Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes					Yes	Yes	No
High	76.24	71.44	70.53	77.91	79.93	84.87	83.87	80.99	76.41	78.80	78.83	83.21
Low	70.27	65.52	65.18	68.10	75.46	79.37	75.68	72.58	68.85	70.02	71.52	76.43
Close/Last	72.15	66.00	69.28	77.90	79.32	81.88	78.47	75.68	72.13	75.56	77.45	83.17