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ScenarioSM Study for February Crude Oil(NYM) as of Sep 16, 2022 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Tested Years | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 38 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | |
Closed Higher | 20 | 24 | 25 | 20 | 20 | 26 | 21 | 20 | 19 | 19 | 22 | |
Exceeded High | 19 | 23 | 21 | 14 | 18 | 24 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 19 | |
Scenario Percentage | 95% | 96% | 84% | 70% | 90% | 92% | 76% | 85% | 63% | 89% | 86% | |
Avg Max Increase | 9.12% | 8.61% | 7.72% | 10.40% | 8.45% | 10.08% | 10.72% | 8.36% | 12.76% | 14.07% | 8.67% | |
Max Increase | 17.47% | 19.47% | 31.97% | 19.87% | 21.18% | 63.08% | 43.64% | 24.44% | 27.15% | 28.47% | 16.90% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 19 | 17 | 14 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 13 | 14 | 24 | 11 | 12 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.56% | -2.38% | -1.69% | -0.85% | -2.26% | -2.49% | -2.99% | -2.62% | -2.48% | -2.82% | -1.27% | |
Max Decline | -12.87% | -9.77% | -5.06% | -5.01% | -13.43% | -13.67% | -12.70% | -12.01% | -7.14% | -9.95% | -6.17% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 11 | 8 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 8 | 10 | 5 | 8 | 5 | 4 | |
2022 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.