MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for February Crude Oil(NYM) as of Sep 16, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		35	36	37	38	38	39	39	39	39	39	39
Closed Higher		20	24	25	20	20	26	21	20	19	19	22
Exceeded High		19	23	21	14	18	24	16	17	12	17	19
Scenario Percentage		95%	96%	84%	70%	90%	92%	76%	85%	63%	89%	86%
Avg Max Increase		9.12%	8.61%	7.72%	10.40%	8.45%	10.08%	10.72%	8.36%	12.76%	14.07%	8.67%
Max Increase		17.47%	19.47%	31.97%	19.87%	21.18%	63.08%	43.64%	24.44%	27.15%	28.47%	16.90%
Avg Days To Max Increase		19	17	14	18	18	20	13	14	24	11	12
Avg Max Decline		-1.56%	-2.38%	-1.69%	-0.85%	-2.26%	-2.49%	-2.99%	-2.62%	-2.48%	-2.82%	-1.27%
Max Decline		-12.87%	-9.77%	-5.06%	-5.01%	-13.43%	-13.67%	-12.70%	-12.01%	-7.14%	-9.95%	-6.17%
Avg Days to Max Decline		11	8	10	6	11	8	10	5	8	5	4
2022 Contract Condition		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes
Action		Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	No		Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		35	36	37	38	38	39	39	39	39	39	39
Closed Lower		15	11	12	18	18	13	17	19	20	20	17
Penetrated Low		7	7	5	13	12	9	10	15	19	17	10
Scenario Percentage		47%	64%	42%	72%	67%	69%	59%	79%	95%	85%	59%
Avg Max Decline		14.64%	9.54%	7.67%	8.63%	10.17%	12.58%	13.93%	13.65%	15.08%	16.71%	15.89%
Max Decline		40.94%	21.42%	13.76%	19.74%	33.64%	26.95%	46.60%	50.99%	49.25%	41.06%	36.71%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	14	20	17	17	17	17	15	18	13	14
Avg Max Increase		-2.82%	-3.32%	-2.59%	-1.21%	-2.32%	-2.95%	-2.64%	-2.30%	-2.45%	-3.13%	-4.02%
Max Increase		-7.60%	-8.95%	-6.65%	-6.17%	-9.19%	-14.94%	-14.44%	-12.49%	-5.31%	-10.68%	-15.15%
Avg Days to Max Increase		10	7	12	3	8	10	11	6	5	9	4
2022 Contract Condition			Yes					Yes			Yes
Action			No					No			Yes
High	50.77	58.51	61.50	61.67	63.93	69.51	70.96	70.01	75.01	82.13	81.73	77.44
Low	46.81	49.40	54.70	55.61	59.21	63.03	62.45	60.52	66.05	72.87	64.16	62.26
Close/Last	49.19	56.32	56.02	60.05	62.86	68.78	70.10	67.21	73.59	79.98	65.85	75.21