MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for August Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 16, 2024 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May |
| Tested Years | 18 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 34 | 34 | |
| Closed Higher | 12 | 15 | 13 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 20 | 20 | 22 | 16 | |
| Exceeded High | 10 | 12 | 11 | 10 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 12 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 83% | 80% | 85% | 71% | 81% | 93% | 88% | 95% | 90% | 86% | 75% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 5.80% | 10.00% | 9.34% | 7.89% | 9.20% | 12.40% | 14.69% | 12.53% | 11.55% | 9.04% | 9.16% | |
| Max Increase | 10.49% | 28.49% | 19.59% | 13.45% | 17.55% | 27.38% | 46.93% | 36.50% | 25.31% | 29.07% | 16.09% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 14 | 15 | 13 | 17 | 13 | 17 | 12 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 17 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.85% | -1.37% | -1.18% | -1.65% | -1.83% | -1.95% | -2.61% | -2.46% | -3.27% | -2.78% | -1.67% | |
| Max Decline | -11.32% | -4.99% | -4.53% | -3.52% | -8.39% | -8.13% | -10.75% | -15.31% | -10.48% | -8.63% | -4.63% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 8 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 6 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 7 | 4 | |
| 2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
| Action | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet | |||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
