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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for August Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 10, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   18 29 29 29 32 32 32 33 34 34 34
Closed Higher   12 15 13 14 16 15 17 20 20 22 16
Exceeded High   10 12 11 10 13 14 15 19 18 19 12
Scenario Percentage   83% 80% 85% 71% 81% 93% 88% 95% 90% 86% 75%
Avg Max Increase   5.80% 10.00% 9.34% 7.89% 9.20% 12.40% 14.69% 12.53% 11.55% 9.04% 9.16%
Max Increase   10.49% 28.49% 19.59% 13.45% 17.55% 27.38% 46.93% 36.50% 25.31% 29.07% 16.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase   14 15 13 17 13 17 12 17 16 13 17
Avg Max Decline   -1.85% -1.37% -1.18% -1.65% -1.83% -1.95% -2.61% -2.46% -3.27% -2.78% -1.67%
Max Decline   -11.32% -4.99% -4.53% -3.52% -8.39% -8.13% -10.75% -15.31% -10.48% -8.63% -4.63%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 6 5 9 6 6 5 8 8 7 4
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action   Yes Yes No       Yes Yes Yes Not Yet  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   18 29 29 29 32 32 32 33 34 34 34
Closed Lower   6 14 16 15 16 17 15 13 14 12 18
Penetrated Low   5 9 13 13 13 10 7 6 7 6 12
Scenario Percentage   83% 64% 81% 87% 81% 59% 47% 46% 50% 50% 67%
Avg Max Decline   12.76% 13.51% 11.85% 13.77% 13.70% 12.69% 15.85% 17.02% 9.77% 13.98% 8.00%
Max Decline   25.96% 43.27% 45.40% 36.95% 37.65% 26.57% 47.25% 54.83% 30.37% 25.51% 14.22%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 15 13 18 16 16 15 20 12 20 15
Avg Max Increase   1.59% -1.92% -1.14% -2.15% -2.08% -3.61% -3.33% -4.49% -4.96% -4.42% -1.62%
Max Increase   -0.82% -9.37% -6.99% -4.76% -10.66% -10.05% -6.85% -9.81% -23.36% -9.51% -3.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase   2 11 8 6 8 7 6 11 7 9 4
2024 Contract Condition         Yes Yes Yes         Yes
Action         Yes Yes No          
High 73.91 81.02 82.87 87.07 86.33 83.96 80.17 82.12 81.30 85.40 90.22 85.20
Low 69.36 71.99 78.68 82.29 78.23 76.19 73.47 74.38 75.63 79.57 84.29 81.31
Close/Last 73.08 80.97 82.24 84.23 81.74 79.11 76.17 79.19 79.88 85.35 85.61 82.36

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