MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jun 05, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		18	29	29	29	32	32	32	33	34	34	34
Closed Higher		12	15	13	14	16	15	17	20	20	22	16
Exceeded High		10	12	11	10	13	14	15	19	18	19	12
Scenario Percentage		83%	80%	85%	71%	81%	93%	88%	95%	90%	86%	75%
Avg Max Increase		5.80%	10.00%	9.34%	7.89%	9.20%	12.40%	14.69%	12.53%	11.55%	9.04%	9.16%
Max Increase		10.49%	28.49%	19.59%	13.45%	17.55%	27.38%	46.93%	36.50%	25.31%	29.07%	16.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase		14	15	13	17	13	17	12	17	16	13	17
Avg Max Decline		-1.85%	-1.37%	-1.18%	-1.65%	-1.83%	-1.95%	-2.61%	-2.46%	-3.27%	-2.78%	-1.67%
Max Decline		-11.32%	-4.99%	-4.53%	-3.52%	-8.39%	-8.13%	-10.75%	-15.31%	-10.48%	-8.63%	-4.63%
Avg Days to Max Decline		8	6	5	9	6	6	5	8	8	7	4
2024 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes				Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No				Yes	Yes	Yes	Not Yet

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May
Tested Years		18	29	29	29	32	32	32	33	34	34	34
Closed Lower		6	14	16	15	16	17	15	13	14	12	18
Penetrated Low		5	9	13	13	13	10	7	6	7	6	12
Scenario Percentage		83%	64%	81%	87%	81%	59%	47%	46%	50%	50%	67%
Avg Max Decline		12.76%	13.51%	11.85%	13.77%	13.70%	12.69%	15.85%	17.02%	9.77%	13.98%	8.00%
Max Decline		25.96%	43.27%	45.40%	36.95%	37.65%	26.57%	47.25%	54.83%	30.37%	25.51%	14.22%
Avg Days To Max Decline		15	15	13	18	16	16	15	20	12	20	15
Avg Max Increase		1.59%	-1.92%	-1.14%	-2.15%	-2.08%	-3.61%	-3.33%	-4.49%	-4.96%	-4.42%	-1.62%
Max Increase		-0.82%	-9.37%	-6.99%	-4.76%	-10.66%	-10.05%	-6.85%	-9.81%	-23.36%	-9.51%	-3.62%
Avg Days to Max Increase		2	11	8	6	8	7	6	11	7	9	4
2024 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	No					Yes
High	73.91	81.02	82.87	87.07	86.33	83.96	80.17	82.12	81.30	85.40	90.22	85.20
Low	69.36	71.99	78.68	82.29	78.23	76.19	73.47	74.38	75.63	79.57	84.29	80.44
Close/Last	73.08	80.97	82.24	84.23	81.74	79.11	76.17	79.19	79.88	85.35	85.61	81.11