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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years   25 28 28 29 31 31 32 32 34 34 34
Closed Higher   17 19 19 14 19 20 17 18 17 17 17
Exceeded High   16 18 16 13 17 18 12 14 12 16 15
Scenario Percentage   94% 95% 84% 93% 89% 90% 71% 78% 71% 94% 88%
Avg Max Increase   10.33% 9.64% 10.28% 9.10% 9.73% 9.12% 11.75% 9.52% 9.67% 11.38% 8.97%
Max Increase   22.66% 19.57% 34.33% 17.69% 27.26% 21.33% 30.49% 22.04% 15.86% 23.85% 17.90%
Avg Days To Max Increase   20 19 14 15 17 20 16 13 21 15 16
Avg Max Decline   -1.73% -2.14% -1.38% -1.83% -2.00% -2.62% -1.94% -1.71% -1.61% -2.55% -1.52%
Max Decline   -13.01% -8.68% -5.58% -6.14% -13.38% -12.94% -10.08% -9.44% -4.38% -9.25% -6.48%
Avg Days to Max Decline   12 9 7 8 5 8 6 5 9 6 4
2023 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes    
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes   No     Yes    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years   25 28 28 29 31 31 32 32 34 34 34
Closed Lower   8 9 9 15 12 11 15 14 17 17 17
Penetrated Low   3 4 4 9 9 10 10 11 16 14 8
Scenario Percentage   38% 44% 44% 60% 75% 91% 67% 79% 94% 82% 47%
Avg Max Decline   18.18% 8.44% 10.32% 8.72% 10.08% 9.48% 13.65% 15.47% 16.92% 18.86% 16.86%
Max Decline   38.87% 19.50% 21.38% 19.16% 31.22% 27.63% 46.39% 50.65% 44.54% 40.79% 33.48%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 7 20 18 15 18 19 14 17 17 18
Avg Max Increase   -2.42% -2.43% -3.03% -1.43% -0.99% -2.50% -4.49% -1.99% -3.43% -3.36% -3.75%
Max Increase   -4.99% -6.34% -6.05% -3.06% -5.56% -13.38% -16.86% -9.81% -10.38% -12.11% -11.30%
Avg Days to Max Increase   13 7 11 5 5 14 15 5 6 9 5
2023 Contract Condition           Yes   Yes Yes   Yes Yes
Action           Yes   Yes No   Yes Not Yet
High 80.08 86.25 103.61 99.77 104.17 109.63 99.02 96.46 91.51 93.26 96.26 89.18
Low 73.30 79.72 84.42 90.96 91.89 93.87 84.43 87.31 78.66 82.06 80.81 75.64
Close/Last 79.75 84.47 92.53 93.91 100.67 95.63 95.72 90.76 80.71 89.47 86.99 85.91

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