MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		25	28	28	29	31	31	32	32	34	34	34
Closed Higher		17	19	19	14	19	20	17	18	17	17	17
Exceeded High		16	18	16	13	17	18	12	14	12	16	15
Scenario Percentage		94%	95%	84%	93%	89%	90%	71%	78%	71%	94%	88%
Avg Max Increase		10.33%	9.64%	10.28%	9.10%	9.73%	9.12%	11.75%	9.52%	9.67%	11.38%	8.97%
Max Increase		22.66%	19.57%	34.33%	17.69%	27.26%	21.33%	30.49%	22.04%	15.86%	23.85%	17.90%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	19	14	15	17	20	16	13	21	15	16
Avg Max Decline		-1.73%	-2.14%	-1.38%	-1.83%	-2.00%	-2.62%	-1.94%	-1.71%	-1.61%	-2.55%	-1.52%
Max Decline		-13.01%	-8.68%	-5.58%	-6.14%	-13.38%	-12.94%	-10.08%	-9.44%	-4.38%	-9.25%	-6.48%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	9	7	8	5	8	6	5	9	6	4
2023 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes			Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		No			Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		25	28	28	29	31	31	32	32	34	34	34
Closed Lower		8	9	9	15	12	11	15	14	17	17	17
Penetrated Low		3	4	4	9	9	10	10	11	16	14	8
Scenario Percentage		38%	44%	44%	60%	75%	91%	67%	79%	94%	82%	47%
Avg Max Decline		18.18%	8.44%	10.32%	8.72%	10.08%	9.48%	13.65%	15.47%	16.92%	18.86%	16.86%
Max Decline		38.87%	19.50%	21.38%	19.16%	31.22%	27.63%	46.39%	50.65%	44.54%	40.79%	33.48%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	7	20	18	15	18	19	14	17	17	18
Avg Max Increase		-2.42%	-2.43%	-3.03%	-1.43%	-0.99%	-2.50%	-4.49%	-1.99%	-3.43%	-3.36%	-3.75%
Max Increase		-4.99%	-6.34%	-6.05%	-3.06%	-5.56%	-13.38%	-16.86%	-9.81%	-10.38%	-12.11%	-11.30%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	7	11	5	5	14	15	5	6	9	5
2023 Contract Condition						Yes		Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes
Action						Yes		Yes	No		Yes	Not Yet
High	80.08	86.25	103.61	99.77	104.17	109.63	99.02	96.46	91.51	93.26	96.26	89.18
Low	73.30	79.72	84.42	90.96	91.89	93.87	84.43	87.31	78.66	82.06	80.81	75.64
Close/Last	79.75	84.47	92.53	93.91	100.67	95.63	95.72	90.76	80.71	89.47	86.99	85.91