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ScenarioSM Study for March Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 10, 2021 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Tested Years | 23 | 26 | 26 | 27 | 29 | 29 | 30 | 30 | 32 | 32 | 32 | |
Closed Higher | 15 | 18 | 17 | 12 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 16 | |
Exceeded High | 14 | 17 | 14 | 11 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 13 | 11 | 16 | 14 | |
Scenario Percentage | 93% | 94% | 82% | 92% | 89% | 94% | 71% | 76% | 73% | 94% | 88% | |
Avg Max Increase | 9.58% | 9.46% | 9.58% | 9.02% | 10.14% | 9.19% | 11.75% | 9.48% | 9.86% | 11.30% | 8.22% | |
Max Increase | 20.68% | 19.57% | 34.33% | 17.69% | 27.26% | 21.33% | 30.49% | 22.04% | 15.86% | 23.85% | 16.23% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 21 | 18 | 13 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 16 | 13 | 22 | 15 | 14 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.97% | -2.17% | -1.31% | -2.05% | -2.04% | -2.04% | -1.94% | -1.77% | -1.71% | -2.55% | -1.56% | |
Max Decline | -13.01% | -8.68% | -5.58% | -6.14% | -13.38% | -12.94% | -10.08% | -9.44% | -4.38% | -9.25% | -6.48% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 12 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 5 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 6 | 4 | |
2021 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.