MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for March Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		23	26	26	27	29	29	30	30	32	32	32
Closed Higher		15	18	17	12	18	18	17	17	15	17	16
Exceeded High		14	17	14	11	16	17	12	13	11	16	14
Scenario Percentage		93%	94%	82%	92%	89%	94%	71%	76%	73%	94%	88%
Avg Max Increase		9.58%	9.46%	9.58%	9.02%	10.14%	9.19%	11.75%	9.48%	9.86%	11.30%	8.22%
Max Increase		20.68%	19.57%	34.33%	17.69%	27.26%	21.33%	30.49%	22.04%	15.86%	23.85%	16.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase		21	18	13	16	18	19	16	13	22	15	14
Avg Max Decline		-1.97%	-2.17%	-1.31%	-2.05%	-2.04%	-2.04%	-1.94%	-1.77%	-1.71%	-2.55%	-1.56%
Max Decline		-13.01%	-8.68%	-5.58%	-6.14%	-13.38%	-12.94%	-10.08%	-9.44%	-4.38%	-9.25%	-6.48%
Avg Days to Max Decline		12	9	6	9	5	7	6	5	9	6	4
2021 Contract Condition					Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes			Yes	Yes
Action					Yes	Yes	Yes	No			Yes	Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		23	26	26	27	29	29	30	30	32	32	32
Closed Lower		8	8	9	15	11	11	13	13	17	15	16
Penetrated Low		3	4	4	9	8	10	9	11	16	12	8
Scenario Percentage		38%	50%	44%	60%	73%	91%	69%	85%	94%	80%	50%
Avg Max Decline		18.18%	8.44%	10.32%	8.72%	9.88%	9.48%	13.69%	15.47%	16.92%	20.51%	16.82%
Max Decline		38.87%	19.50%	21.38%	19.16%	31.22%	27.63%	46.39%	50.65%	44.54%	40.79%	33.48%
Avg Days To Max Decline		18	7	20	18	15	18	18	14	17	19	18
Avg Max Increase		-2.42%	-2.43%	-3.03%	-1.43%	-0.67%	-2.50%	-4.90%	-1.99%	-3.43%	-3.28%	-3.75%
Max Increase		-4.99%	-6.34%	-6.05%	-3.06%	-5.56%	-13.38%	-16.86%	-9.81%	-10.38%	-12.11%	-11.30%
Avg Days to Max Increase		13	7	11	5	6	14	16	5	6	11	5
2021 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes					Yes	Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	No					Yes	Yes
High	62.39	58.18	53.24	40.95	40.82	44.68	46.13	47.89	47.53	44.62	49.00	52.46
Low	54.33	50.71	34.74	31.00	33.04	39.17	42.04	44.69	41.35	38.14	36.83	46.81
Close/Last	54.83	50.71	38.51	34.89	40.60	42.40	45.07	46.69	43.46	38.85	47.95	51.80