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ScenarioSM Study for August Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Oct 20, 2019 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul |
Tested Years | 43 | 44 | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 17 | 26 | 22 | 18 | 22 | 28 | 25 | 25 | 18 | 20 | 17 | |
Exceeded High | 14 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 18 | 26 | 21 | 19 | 13 | 14 | 6 | |
Scenario Percentage | 82% | 69% | 77% | 78% | 82% | 93% | 84% | 76% | 72% | 70% | 35% | |
Avg Max Increase | 9.19% | 9.54% | 8.13% | 9.95% | 9.99% | 8.68% | 10.60% | 10.81% | 14.64% | 15.75% | 9.51% | |
Max Increase | 22.69% | 19.05% | 22.56% | 35.25% | 32.99% | 32.20% | 33.74% | 44.01% | 38.86% | 49.85% | 25.43% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 20 | 18 | 15 | 18 | 14 | 15 | 15 | 13 | 15 | 14 | 8 | |
Avg Max Decline | -2.14% | -1.56% | -2.11% | -2.30% | -1.85% | -1.62% | -1.75% | -1.66% | -2.36% | -1.32% | -1.56% | |
Max Decline | -8.77% | -6.54% | -8.55% | -5.74% | -6.83% | -6.34% | -7.63% | -4.75% | -5.91% | -3.76% | -6.24% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 5 | 8 | 13 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 2 | |
2019 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.