MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for August Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		43	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		17	26	22	18	22	28	25	25	18	20	17
Exceeded High		14	18	17	14	18	26	21	19	13	14	6
Scenario Percentage		82%	69%	77%	78%	82%	93%	84%	76%	72%	70%	35%
Avg Max Increase		9.19%	9.54%	8.13%	9.95%	9.99%	8.68%	10.60%	10.81%	14.64%	15.75%	9.51%
Max Increase		22.69%	19.05%	22.56%	35.25%	32.99%	32.20%	33.74%	44.01%	38.86%	49.85%	25.43%
Avg Days To Max Increase		20	18	15	18	14	15	15	13	15	14	8
Avg Max Decline		-2.14%	-1.56%	-2.11%	-2.30%	-1.85%	-1.62%	-1.75%	-1.66%	-2.36%	-1.32%	-1.56%
Max Decline		-8.77%	-6.54%	-8.55%	-5.74%	-6.83%	-6.34%	-7.63%	-4.75%	-5.91%	-3.76%	-6.24%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	5	8	13	7	5	8	4	5	3	2
2019 Contract Condition		Yes				Yes					Yes
Action		Yes				Yes					Yes

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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul
Tested Years		43	44	44	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		26	18	21	24	23	17	20	20	27	25	28
Penetrated Low		22	15	16	21	11	13	17	19	23	24	17
Scenario Percentage		85%	83%	76%	88%	48%	76%	85%	95%	85%	96%	61%
Avg Max Decline		7.22%	7.44%	7.43%	6.51%	9.21%	6.05%	5.70%	7.30%	9.68%	10.44%	5.17%
Max Decline		30.98%	18.53%	23.96%	29.01%	22.01%	15.88%	15.14%	14.69%	20.80%	24.20%	14.52%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	21	19	18	13	15	16	18	23	12	9
Avg Max Increase		-2.12%	-4.18%	-2.59%	-3.30%	-2.26%	-2.12%	-3.48%	-2.11%	-2.69%	-2.91%	-1.23%
Max Increase		-7.95%	-14.59%	-8.14%	-11.96%	-6.26%	-4.44%	-8.02%	-5.44%	-8.26%	-13.98%	-5.36%
Avg Days to Max Increase		6	12	11	12	6	5	14	9	11	6	2
2019 Contract Condition			Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action			Yes	No	No		Yes	Yes	Yes	No		Not Yet
High	30.54	30.72	31.17	29.78	30.12	31.21	31.70	31.12	29.86	28.35	28.85	28.73
Low	29.40	28.43	28.95	28.14	28.27	28.65	30.40	28.83	27.67	26.36	27.08	27.47
Close/Last	29.96	30.23	29.18	28.98	28.52	30.91	30.75	28.84	28.02	27.72	28.37	27.75