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ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jun 08, 2020 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Tested Years | 43 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 28 | 26 | 26 | 21 | 20 | 17 | 22 | 19 | 25 | 23 | 15 | |
Exceeded High | 28 | 25 | 20 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 16 | 16 | 18 | 16 | 10 | |
Scenario Percentage | 100% | 96% | 77% | 76% | 70% | 71% | 73% | 84% | 72% | 70% | 67% | |
Avg Max Increase | 6.56% | 8.68% | 12.13% | 12.07% | 16.30% | 10.53% | 8.88% | 10.21% | 10.45% | 8.50% | 5.74% | |
Max Increase | 14.70% | 19.91% | 41.28% | 37.00% | 73.84% | 53.60% | 29.96% | 22.12% | 20.47% | 21.47% | 11.75% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 15 | 17 | 17 | 13 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 19 | 16 | 9 | 8 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.01% | -1.80% | -1.49% | -2.17% | -1.94% | -3.49% | -1.84% | -2.61% | -1.88% | -1.87% | -0.93% | |
Max Decline | -5.62% | -6.08% | -4.75% | -6.59% | -5.39% | -10.70% | -7.29% | -9.37% | -5.26% | -7.20% | -6.09% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 4 | |
2020 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.