MRCI's ScenarioSM Study

ScenarioSM Study for January Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Jun 08, 2020
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Higher		28	26	26	21	20	17	22	19	25	23	15
Exceeded High		28	25	20	16	14	12	16	16	18	16	10
Scenario Percentage		100%	96%	77%	76%	70%	71%	73%	84%	72%	70%	67%
Avg Max Increase		6.56%	8.68%	12.13%	12.07%	16.30%	10.53%	8.88%	10.21%	10.45%	8.50%	5.74%
Max Increase		14.70%	19.91%	41.28%	37.00%	73.84%	53.60%	29.96%	22.12%	20.47%	21.47%	11.75%
Avg Days To Max Increase		15	17	17	13	15	17	17	19	16	9	8
Avg Max Decline		-1.01%	-1.80%	-1.49%	-2.17%	-1.94%	-3.49%	-1.84%	-2.61%	-1.88%	-1.87%	-0.93%
Max Decline		-5.62%	-6.08%	-4.75%	-6.59%	-5.39%	-10.70%	-7.29%	-9.37%	-5.26%	-7.20%	-6.09%
Avg Days to Max Decline		6	9	9	6	7	8	7	5	8	9	4
2020 Contract Condition						Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes
Action						Yes		Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close. Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	May	Jun	Jul	Aug	Sep	Oct	Nov	Dec
Tested Years		43	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45	45
Closed Lower		15	18	19	24	25	28	23	26	20	22	30
Penetrated Low		11	15	15	22	22	19	17	23	16	17	15
Scenario Percentage		73%	83%	79%	92%	88%	68%	74%	88%	80%	77%	50%
Avg Max Decline		5.51%	5.48%	8.67%	7.83%	10.23%	8.42%	9.29%	8.44%	8.34%	5.54%	3.03%
Max Decline		14.48%	13.42%	13.33%	18.81%	25.87%	26.56%	42.91%	32.78%	20.13%	14.41%	5.80%
Avg Days To Max Decline		16	19	19	22	18	16	17	16	20	11	6
Avg Max Increase		-2.06%	-3.65%	-1.80%	-2.45%	-2.26%	-2.36%	-2.94%	-1.84%	-3.88%	-2.73%	-0.53%
Max Increase		-4.32%	-7.94%	-5.23%	-5.91%	-13.28%	-9.12%	-13.90%	-7.33%	-10.21%	-9.68%	-1.22%
Avg Days to Max Increase		8	16	9	12	5	7	6	4	9	7	3
2020 Contract Condition		Yes	Yes	Yes	Yes		Yes				Yes
Action		Yes	Yes	Yes	No		No				Yes
High	31.83	32.28	31.80	30.71	29.11	29.53	29.52	30.47	30.62	31.73	32.17	35.22
Low	29.48	31.07	29.73	28.55	27.18	27.85	28.12	28.13	28.41	29.08	30.28	30.11
Close/Last	31.56	31.47	29.75	28.85	28.50	29.07	28.48	29.00	29.31	30.97	30.58	34.49