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MRCI's Scenario Summary

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
ScenarioSM Summary Apr 30, 2020
Historical Data Scenario Data Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month
Prev
Close
Month
High
Month
Low
Month
Close
Pct
Range
Total
Years
Cond
Years
Action
Years

Pct
Scenario
Objective
Average
Objective
Last
Price
#DJ Higher Apr 21917.00 24765.00 20735.00 24346.00 90% 45 31 28 90% 24765.00 25786.03 24346.00
#NQ Higher Apr 7813.50 9025.75 7423.75 9000.50 98% 34 20 17 85% 9025.75 9747.29 9000.50
#QR Higher Apr 1153.10 1251.90 1035.40 1233.05 91% 41 26 22 85% Yes 1329.62 1233.05
#VLE Higher Apr 4546.00 5565.80 4150.00 5384.00 87% 37 23 20 87% 5565.80 5871.95 5384.00
#SP Higher Apr 2584.50 2954.75 2447.50 2912.50 92% 45 31 29 94% 2954.75 3086.65 2912.50
SPM0 Higher Apr 2569.75 2959.00 2425.25 2902.50 89% 37 26 24 92% 2959.00 3075.41 2902.50
USM0 Higher Apr 179~020 183~020 177~140 181~010 64% 42 19 18 95% 183~020 192~018 181~010
TYM0 Higher Apr 138~220 139~220 137~160 139~020 71% 37 18 18 100% 139~220 143~168 139~020
FVM0 Higher Apr 125~114 125~232 124~202 125~154 78% 31 17 16 94% 125~232 127~286 125~154
TUM0 Higher Apr 110~061 110~081 110~010 110~067 82% 29 16 14 88% 110~081 110~278 110~067
EDU0 Higher Apr 99.645 99.725 99.510 99.710 93% 38 21 18 86% 99.725 100.168 99.710
RBN0 Higher Apr 71.65 90.08 57.50 80.79 71% 34 25 21 84% 90.08 97.06 80.79
RBU0 Higher Apr 79.87 93.11 65.16 83.65 66% 35 26 22 85% 93.11 99.79 83.65
NGN0 Higher Apr 1.912 2.300 1.825 2.170 73% 29 18 17 94% 2.300 2.550 2.170
NGQ0 Higher Apr 1.978 2.390 1.900 2.275 77% 29 18 17 94% 2.390 2.672 2.275
NGU0 Higher Apr 2.006 2.431 1.932 2.331 80% 29 19 18 95% 2.431 2.720 2.331
BON0 Lower Apr 27.36 28.14 25.09 26.60 50% 45 20 19 95% 25.09 23.24 26.60
BOQ0 Lower Apr 27.51 28.24 25.30 26.79 51% 45 20 19 95% 25.30 23.45 26.79
CN0 Lower Apr 346.00 347.50 309.00 320.00 29% 45 29 26 90% 309.00 282.27 320.00
CZ0 Lower Apr 357.50 358.75 325.50 337.25 35% 45 24 23 96% 325.50 299.53 337.25
KWN0 Lower Apr 499.50 514.00 467.75 488.00 44% 43 21 20 95% 467.75 437.79 488.00
KWU0 Lower Apr 507.00 519.25 476.50 494.75 43% 43 23 20 87% 476.50 445.80 494.75
HEN0 Lower Apr 64.720 63.930 49.000 60.500 77% 45 15 13 87% 49.000 44.904 60.500
HEQ0 Lower Apr 65.400 67.580 51.900 62.800 70% 45 14 12 86% 51.900 47.494 62.800
KCU0 Lower Apr 121.05 123.50 105.25 107.50 12% 45 23 20 87% 105.25 92.39 107.50
CTV0 Higher Apr 53.21 58.90 50.31 58.72 98% 45 26 22 85% 58.90 62.82 58.72


DJIA Index
The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 21917.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 24346.00(Month Close), that being 90%(Pct Range) off of 20735.00(Month Low) to 24765.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in April than March in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #DJ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 28 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 24765.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 28 years) a potential move toward 25786.03(Average Objective).

NASDAQ 100 Index
The #NQ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 7813.50(Prev Close), the market ended April at 9000.50(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 7423.75(Month Low) to 9025.75(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #NQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NQ should exceed 9025.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 9747.29(Average Objective).

Russell 2000 Index
The #QR(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1153.10(Prev Close), the market ended April at 1233.05(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 1035.40(Month Low) to 1251.90(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Russell 2000 Index also closed higher in April than March in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, the #QR went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #QR should exceed 1251.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 1329.62(Average Objective).

Value Line Index
The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 4546.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 5384.00(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 4150.00(Month Low) to 5565.80(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in April than March in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, the #VLE went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 5565.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 5871.95(Average Objective).

S & P 500 Stock Index
The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2584.50(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2912.50(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 2447.50(Month Low) to 2954.75(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in April than March in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, the #SP went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 29 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2954.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 29 years) a potential move toward 3086.65(Average Objective).

June S & P 500(CME)
The SPM0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2569.75(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2902.50(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 2425.25(Month Low) to 2959.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, SPM went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should exceed 2959.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 3075.41(Average Objective).

June 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)
The USM0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 179~020(Prev Close), the market ended April at 181~010(Month Close), that being 64%(Pct Range) off of 177~140(Month Low) to 183~020(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, USM went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USM should exceed 183~020(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 192~018(Average Objective).

June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TYM0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 138~220(Prev Close), the market ended April at 139~020(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 137~160(Month Low) to 139~220(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 37 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, TYM went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYM should exceed 139~220(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 143~168(Average Objective).

June 5-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The FVM0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 125~114(Prev Close), the market ended April at 125~154(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 124~202(Month Low) to 125~232(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 5-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, FVM went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FVM should exceed 125~232(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 127~286(Average Objective).

June 2 Year T-Notes(CBOT)
The TUM0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 110~061(Prev Close), the market ended April at 110~067(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 110~010(Month Low) to 110~081(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June 2 Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in April than March in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, TUM went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TUM should exceed 110~081(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 110~278(Average Objective).

September Eurodollars(CME)
The EDU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 99.645(Prev Close), the market ended April at 99.710(Month Close), that being 93%(Pct Range) off of 99.510(Month Low) to 99.725(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, EDU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should exceed 99.725(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 100.168(Average Objective).

July RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBN0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 71.65(Prev Close), the market ended April at 80.79(Month Close), that being 71%(Pct Range) off of 57.50(Month Low) to 90.08(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, RBN went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBN should exceed 90.08(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 97.06(Average Objective).

September RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
The RBU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 79.87(Prev Close), the market ended April at 83.65(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 65.16(Month Low) to 93.11(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, RBU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBU should exceed 93.11(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 99.79(Average Objective).

July Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGN0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1.912(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2.170(Month Close), that being 73%(Pct Range) off of 1.825(Month Low) to 2.300(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, NGN went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGN should exceed 2.300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 2.550(Average Objective).

August Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGQ0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 1.978(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2.275(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 1.900(Month Low) to 2.390(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, NGQ went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 2.390(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 2.672(Average Objective).

September Natural Gas(NYM)
The NGU0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 2.006(Prev Close), the market ended April at 2.331(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 1.932(Month Low) to 2.431(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in April than March in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, NGU went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should exceed 2.431(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 2.720(Average Objective).

July Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BON0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 27.36(Prev Close), the market ended April at 26.60(Month Close), that being 50%(Pct Range) off of 25.09(Month Low) to 28.14(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, BON went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BON should penetrate 25.09(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 23.24(Average Objective).

August Soybean Oil(CBOT)
The BOQ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 27.51(Prev Close), the market ended April at 26.79(Month Close), that being 51%(Pct Range) off of 25.30(Month Low) to 28.24(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Soybean Oil(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, BOQ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BOQ should penetrate 25.30(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 23.45(Average Objective).

July Corn(CBOT)
The CN0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 346.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 320.00(Month Close), that being 29%(Pct Range) off of 309.00(Month Low) to 347.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 29(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 29, CN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should penetrate 309.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 282.27(Average Objective).

December Corn(CBOT)
The CZ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 357.50(Prev Close), the market ended April at 337.25(Month Close), that being 35%(Pct Range) off of 325.50(Month Low) to 358.75(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in April than March in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, CZ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 325.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 299.53(Average Objective).

July Wheat(KCBT)
The KWN0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 499.50(Prev Close), the market ended April at 488.00(Month Close), that being 44%(Pct Range) off of 467.75(Month Low) to 514.00(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in April than March in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, KWN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWN should penetrate 467.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 437.79(Average Objective).

September Wheat(KCBT)
The KWU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 507.00(Prev Close), the market ended April at 494.75(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 476.50(Month Low) to 519.25(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in April than March in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, KWU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 476.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 445.80(Average Objective).

July Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEN0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 64.720(Prev Close), the market ended April at 60.500(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 49.000(Month Low) to 63.930(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, HEN went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEN should penetrate 49.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 44.904(Average Objective).

August Lean Hogs(CME)
The HEQ0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 65.400(Prev Close), the market ended April at 62.800(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 51.900(Month Low) to 67.580(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in April than March in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, HEQ went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HEQ should penetrate 51.900(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 47.494(Average Objective).

September Coffee "C"(ICE)
The KCU0(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 121.05(Prev Close), the market ended April at 107.50(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 105.25(Month Low) to 123.50(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in April than March in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, KCU went on to penetrate the April low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCU should penetrate 105.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 92.39(Average Objective).

October Cotton(ICE)
The CTV0(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for April(Month). Compared to March's 53.21(Prev Close), the market ended April at 58.72(Month Close), that being 98%(Pct Range) off of 50.31(Month Low) to 58.90(Month High).

In comparing the March/April closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Cotton(ICE) also closed higher in April than March in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, CTV went on to exceed the April high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTV should exceed 58.90(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of June. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 62.82(Average Objective).
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