MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Aug 31, 2018

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#NDX

Higher

Aug

678.40

1137.50

667.75

1100.95

92%

89%

1137.50

1230.65

1100.95

USZ8

Higher

Aug

142~070

145~060

141~030

144~070

76%

88%

145~060

151~074

144~070

TYZ8

Higher

Aug

119~070

120~200

118~275

120~085

80%

92%

120~200

123~311

120~085

EDZ8

Higher

Aug

97.320

97.420

97.305

97.385

70%

96%

97.420

97.882

97.385

EDH9

Higher

Aug

97.170

97.285

97.155

97.240

65%

96%

97.285

97.775

97.240

PAZ8

Higher

Aug

928.60

971.80

816.00

969.90

99%

87%

971.80

1068.57

969.90

HOZ8

Higher

Aug

215.34

226.80

208.57

224.75

89%

91%

226.80

246.62

224.75

HOF9

Higher

Aug

215.74

226.89

208.98

224.95

89%

91%

226.89

245.63

224.95

HOG9

Higher

Aug

215.54

226.37

208.81

224.47

89%

91%

226.37

244.80

224.47

RBZ8

Higher

Aug

191.89

198.41

182.23

196.34

87%

89%

198.41

217.16

196.34

RBF9

Higher

Aug

191.41

198.01

182.06

196.05

88%

198.01

214.28

196.05

RBG9

Higher

Aug

191.80

198.58

182.66

196.73

88%

198.58

213.82

196.73

NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 678.40(Prev Close), the market ended August at 1100.95(Month Close), that being 92%(Pct Range) off of 667.75(Month Low) to 1137.50(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in August than July in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #NDX went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 1137.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 1230.65(Average Objective).
December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT): The USZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 142~070(Prev Close), the market ended August at 144~070(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 141~030(Month Low) to 145~060(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, USZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the USZ should exceed 145~060(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 151~074(Average Objective).
December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT): The TYZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 119~070(Prev Close), the market ended August at 120~085(Month Close), that being 80%(Pct Range) off of 118~275(Month Low) to 120~200(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT) also closed higher in August than July in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, TYZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the TYZ should exceed 120~200(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 123~311(Average Objective).
December Eurodollars(CME): The EDZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 97.320(Prev Close), the market ended August at 97.385(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 97.305(Month Low) to 97.420(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, EDZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should exceed 97.420(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 97.882(Average Objective).
March Eurodollars(CME): The EDH9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 97.170(Prev Close), the market ended August at 97.240(Month Close), that being 65%(Pct Range) off of 97.155(Month Low) to 97.285(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Eurodollars(CME) also closed higher in August than July in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, EDH went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 25 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDH should exceed 97.285(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 25 years) a potential move toward 97.775(Average Objective).
December Palladium(NYMEX): The PAZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 928.60(Prev Close), the market ended August at 969.90(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 816.00(Month Low) to 971.80(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in August than July in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, PAZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAZ should exceed 971.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 1068.57(Average Objective).
December NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 215.34(Prev Close), the market ended August at 224.75(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 208.57(Month Low) to 226.80(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, HOZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOZ should exceed 226.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 246.62(Average Objective).
January NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOF9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 215.74(Prev Close), the market ended August at 224.95(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 208.98(Month Low) to 226.89(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, HOF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOF should exceed 226.89(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 245.63(Average Objective).
February NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOG9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 215.54(Prev Close), the market ended August at 224.47(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 208.81(Month Low) to 226.37(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, HOG went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOG should exceed 226.37(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 244.80(Average Objective).
December RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBZ8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 191.89(Prev Close), the market ended August at 196.34(Month Close), that being 87%(Pct Range) off of 182.23(Month Low) to 198.41(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, RBZ went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBZ should exceed 198.41(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 217.16(Average Objective).
January RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBF9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 191.41(Prev Close), the market ended August at 196.05(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 182.06(Month Low) to 198.01(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, RBF went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBF should exceed 198.01(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 214.28(Average Objective).
February RBOB Gasoline(NYM): The RBG9(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for August(Month). Compared to July's 191.80(Prev Close), the market ended August at 196.73(Month Close), that being 88%(Pct Range) off of 182.66(Month Low) to 198.58(Month High).

In comparing the July/August closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the February RBOB Gasoline(NYM) also closed higher in August than July in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, RBG went on to exceed the August high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RBG should exceed 198.58(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of October. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 213.82(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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