MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Jun 30, 2017

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Jun

21009.00

21535.00

20994.00

21350.00

66%

86%

21535.00

22470.90

21350.00

#MID

Higher

Jun

1721.70

1771.05

1722.95

1746.65

49%

86%

1771.05

1862.00

1746.65

#SSNI

Higher

Jun

19651

20318

19686

20033

55%

84%

20318

21165

20033

#SP

Higher

Jun

2411.80

2453.80

2405.70

2423.40

37%

84%

2453.80

2568.15

2423.40

DXU7

Lower

Jun

96.650

97.515

95.225

95.420

89%

95.225

92.367

95.420

PAU7

Higher

Jun

815.95

891.35

809.05

836.65

34%

93%

891.35

1015.33

836.65

HGU7

Higher

Jun

259.30

271.85

252.85

271.10

96%

271.85

293.55

271.10

HGZ7

Higher

Jun

260.85

273.40

254.45

272.70

96%

273.40

296.09

272.70

NGV7

Lower

Jun

3.120

3.165

2.910

3.058

58%

87%

2.910

2.437

3.058

NGX7

Lower

Jun

3.184

3.227

2.977

3.118

56%

87%

2.977

2.611

3.118

NGZ7

Lower

Jun

3.317

3.354

3.126

3.267

62%

88%

3.126

2.793

3.267

LCZ7

Lower

Jun

118.900

122.850

111.980

115.800

35%

85%

111.980

106.404

115.800

JOF8

Higher

Jun

133.50

142.25

129.60

134.25

37%

89%

142.25

152.72

134.25

KCZ7

Lower

Jun

135.25

135.80

119.10

129.20

60%

91%

119.10

105.13

129.20

KCH8

Lower

Jun

138.65

139.25

122.65

132.75

61%

87%

122.65

108.38

132.75

CTV7

Lower

Jun

75.04

75.75

66.34

70.36

43%

86%

66.34

58.81

70.36

CTZ7

Lower

Jun

72.79

73.70

66.15

68.59

32%

90%

66.15

59.96

68.59

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 21009.00(Prev Close), the market ended June at 21350.00(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 20994.00(Month Low) to 21535.00(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in June than May in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #DJ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 21535.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 22470.90(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 1721.70(Prev Close), the market ended June at 1746.65(Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 1722.95(Month Low) to 1771.05(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 36 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in June than May in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, the #MID went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1771.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 1862.00(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 19651(Prev Close), the market ended June at 20033(Month Close), that being 55%(Pct Range) off of 19686(Month Low) to 20318(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in June than May in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #SSNI went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 20318(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 21165(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 2411.80(Prev Close), the market ended June at 2423.40(Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 2405.70(Month Low) to 2453.80(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed higher in June than May in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #SP went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should exceed 2453.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 2568.15(Average Objective).
September US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 96.650(Prev Close), the market ended June at 95.420(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 95.225(Month Low) to 97.515(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, DXU went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXU should penetrate 95.225(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 92.367(Average Objective).
September Palladium(NYMEX): The PAU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 815.95(Prev Close), the market ended June at 836.65(Month Close), that being 34%(Pct Range) off of 809.05(Month Low) to 891.35(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Palladium(NYMEX) also closed higher in June than May in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, PAU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PAU should exceed 891.35(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 1015.33(Average Objective).
September Copper(CMX): The HGU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 259.30(Prev Close), the market ended June at 271.10(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 252.85(Month Low) to 271.85(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Copper(CMX) also closed higher in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, HGU went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGU should exceed 271.85(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 293.55(Average Objective).
December Copper(CMX): The HGZ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 260.85(Prev Close), the market ended June at 272.70(Month Close), that being 96%(Pct Range) off of 254.45(Month Low) to 273.40(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Copper(CMX) also closed higher in June than May in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, HGZ went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGZ should exceed 273.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 296.09(Average Objective).
October Natural Gas(NYM): The NGV7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 3.120(Prev Close), the market ended June at 3.058(Month Close), that being 58%(Pct Range) off of 2.910(Month Low) to 3.165(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in June than May in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, NGV went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGV should penetrate 2.910(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2.437(Average Objective).
November Natural Gas(NYM): The NGX7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 3.184(Prev Close), the market ended June at 3.118(Month Close), that being 56%(Pct Range) off of 2.977(Month Low) to 3.227(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the November Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in June than May in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, NGX went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGX should penetrate 2.977(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 2.611(Average Objective).
December Natural Gas(NYM): The NGZ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 3.317(Prev Close), the market ended June at 3.267(Month Close), that being 62%(Pct Range) off of 3.126(Month Low) to 3.354(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 27 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Natural Gas(NYM) also closed lower in June than May in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, NGZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 14 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGZ should penetrate 3.126(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 14 years) a potential move toward 2.793(Average Objective).
December Live Cattle(CME): The LCZ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 118.900(Prev Close), the market ended June at 115.800(Month Close), that being 35%(Pct Range) off of 111.980(Month Low) to 122.850(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Live Cattle(CME) also closed lower in June than May in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LCZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCZ should penetrate 111.980(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 106.404(Average Objective).
January Orange Juice(ICE): The JOF8(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 133.50(Prev Close), the market ended June at 134.25(Month Close), that being 37%(Pct Range) off of 129.60(Month Low) to 142.25(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the January Orange Juice(ICE) also closed higher in June than May in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, JOF went on to exceed the June high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOF should exceed 142.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 152.72(Average Objective).
December Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCZ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 135.25(Prev Close), the market ended June at 129.20(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 119.10(Month Low) to 135.80(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 32(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 32, KCZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 29 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCZ should penetrate 119.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 29 years) a potential move toward 105.13(Average Objective).
March Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCH8(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 138.65(Prev Close), the market ended June at 132.75(Month Close), that being 61%(Pct Range) off of 122.65(Month Low) to 139.25(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the March Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 31(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 31, KCH went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCH should penetrate 122.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 108.38(Average Objective).
October Cotton(ICE): The CTV7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 75.04(Prev Close), the market ended June at 70.36(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 66.34(Month Low) to 75.75(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the October Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, CTV went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTV should penetrate 66.34(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 58.81(Average Objective).
December Cotton(ICE): The CTZ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for June(Month). Compared to May's 72.79(Prev Close), the market ended June at 68.59(Month Close), that being 32%(Pct Range) off of 66.15(Month Low) to 73.70(Month High).

In comparing the May/June closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in June than May in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, CTZ went on to penetrate the June low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 90%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTZ should penetrate 66.15(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of August. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 59.96(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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