MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Mar 31, 2017

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#NDX

Higher

Mar

5330.30

5451.50

5316.00

5436.20

89%

85%

5451.50

5881.51

5436.20

#VLE

Higher

Mar

5444.60

5533.20

5302.90

5459.10

68%

92%

5533.20

5854.14

5459.10

SPU7

Higher

Mar

2355.20

2393.20

2316.00

2356.30

52%

87%

2393.20

2522.29

2356.30

EUM7

Higher

Mar

106.47

109.49

105.48

107.22

43%

100%

109.49

114.54

107.22

BPM7

Higher

Mar

124.34

126.43

121.38

125.56

83%

84%

126.43

130.45

125.56

DXM7

Lower

Mar

101.050

102.190

98.670

100.218

44%

100%

98.670

95.208

100.218

NGN7

Higher

Mar

3.027

3.381

3.002

3.316

83%

100%

3.381

3.828

3.316

NGQ7

Higher

Mar

3.050

3.402

3.024

3.333

82%

100%

3.402

3.847

3.333

NGU7

Higher

Mar

3.042

3.386

3.019

3.318

81%

100%

3.386

3.814

3.318

CU7

Lower

Mar

387.25

395.50

369.50

379.25

38%

100%

369.50

345.77

379.25

CZ7

Lower

Mar

393.75

401.50

378.25

388.25

43%

100%

378.25

355.44

388.25

WZ7

Lower

Mar

492.25

507.25

465.00

473.75

21%

85%

465.00

438.29

473.75

RRU7

Higher

Mar

10.03

10.45

10.00

10.36

81%

88%

10.45

11.32

10.36

LCQ7

Higher

Mar

102.430

109.550

101.250

106.750

66%

86%

109.550

116.682

106.750

FCK7

Higher

Mar

124.730

136.235

120.730

132.700

77%

95%

136.235

142.946

132.700

FCQ7

Higher

Mar

126.230

137.000

122.850

133.750

77%

86%

137.000

144.087

133.750

JOU7

Lower

Mar

158.15

174.70

148.40

152.00

14%

84%

148.40

136.12

152.00

KCN7

Lower

Mar

144.90

148.75

138.55

141.65

30%

85%

138.55

126.76

141.65

NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 5330.30(Prev Close), the market ended March at 5436.20(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 5316.00(Month Low) to 5451.50(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed higher in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, the #NDX went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should exceed 5451.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 5881.51(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 5444.60(Prev Close), the market ended March at 5459.10(Month Close), that being 68%(Pct Range) off of 5302.90(Month Low) to 5533.20(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in March than February in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, the #VLE went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 5533.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 5854.14(Average Objective).
September S & P 500(CME): The SPU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 2355.20(Prev Close), the market ended March at 2356.30(Month Close), that being 52%(Pct Range) off of 2316.00(Month Low) to 2393.20(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September S & P 500(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SPU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPU should exceed 2393.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 2522.29(Average Objective).
June EuroFX(CME): The EUM7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 106.47(Prev Close), the market ended March at 107.22(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 105.48(Month Low) to 109.49(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 18 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June EuroFX(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 8(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 8, EUM went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 8 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EUM should exceed 109.49(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 8 years) a potential move toward 114.54(Average Objective).
June British Pound(CME): The BPM7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 124.34(Prev Close), the market ended March at 125.56(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 121.38(Month Low) to 126.43(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June British Pound(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, BPM went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the BPM should exceed 126.43(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 130.45(Average Objective).
June US Dollar Index(ICE): The DXM7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 101.050(Prev Close), the market ended March at 100.218(Month Close), that being 44%(Pct Range) off of 98.670(Month Low) to 102.190(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 31 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June US Dollar Index(ICE) also closed lower in March than February in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, DXM went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the DXM should penetrate 98.670(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 95.208(Average Objective).
July Natural Gas(NYM): The NGN7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 3.027(Prev Close), the market ended March at 3.316(Month Close), that being 83%(Pct Range) off of 3.002(Month Low) to 3.381(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, NGN went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGN should exceed 3.381(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 3.828(Average Objective).
August Natural Gas(NYM): The NGQ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 3.050(Prev Close), the market ended March at 3.333(Month Close), that being 82%(Pct Range) off of 3.024(Month Low) to 3.402(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, NGQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGQ should exceed 3.402(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 3.847(Average Objective).
September Natural Gas(NYM): The NGU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 3.042(Prev Close), the market ended March at 3.318(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 3.019(Month Low) to 3.386(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 26 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Natural Gas(NYM) also closed higher in March than February in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, NGU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the NGU should exceed 3.386(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 3.814(Average Objective).
September Corn(CBOT): The CU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 387.25(Prev Close), the market ended March at 379.25(Month Close), that being 38%(Pct Range) off of 369.50(Month Low) to 395.50(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, CU went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CU should penetrate 369.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 345.77(Average Objective).
December Corn(CBOT): The CZ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 393.75(Prev Close), the market ended March at 388.25(Month Close), that being 43%(Pct Range) off of 378.25(Month Low) to 401.50(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CZ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 378.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 355.44(Average Objective).
December Wheat(CBOT): The WZ7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 492.25(Prev Close), the market ended March at 473.75(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 465.00(Month Low) to 507.25(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in March than February in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, WZ went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WZ should penetrate 465.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 438.29(Average Objective).
September Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRU7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 10.03(Prev Close), the market ended March at 10.36(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 10.00(Month Low) to 10.45(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed higher in March than February in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, RRU went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRU should exceed 10.45(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 11.32(Average Objective).
August Live Cattle(CME): The LCQ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 102.430(Prev Close), the market ended March at 106.750(Month Close), that being 66%(Pct Range) off of 101.250(Month Low) to 109.550(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, LCQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should exceed 109.550(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 116.682(Average Objective).
May Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCK7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 124.730(Prev Close), the market ended March at 132.700(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 120.730(Month Low) to 136.235(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, FCK went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCK should exceed 136.235(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 142.946(Average Objective).
August Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCQ7(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 126.230(Prev Close), the market ended March at 133.750(Month Close), that being 77%(Pct Range) off of 122.850(Month Low) to 137.000(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in March than February in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, FCQ went on to exceed the March high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCQ should exceed 137.000(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 144.087(Average Objective).
September Orange Juice(ICE): The JOU7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 158.15(Prev Close), the market ended March at 152.00(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 148.40(Month Low) to 174.70(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Orange Juice(ICE) also closed lower in March than February in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, JOU went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the JOU should penetrate 148.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 136.12(Average Objective).
July Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCN7(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for March(Month). Compared to February's 144.90(Prev Close), the market ended March at 141.65(Month Close), that being 30%(Pct Range) off of 138.55(Month Low) to 148.75(Month High).

In comparing the February/March closes for each of the last 43 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in March than February in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, KCN went on to penetrate the March low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCN should penetrate 138.55(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of May. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 126.76(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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