MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Feb 29, 2016

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#DJ

Higher

Feb

16466.00

16796.00

15503.00

16517.00

78%

96%

16796.00

17684.89

16517.00

#UTIL

Higher

Feb

611.35

637.95

606.15

620.70

46%

94%

637.95

668.26

620.70

#NDX

Lower

Feb

4279.20

4301.60

3888.80

4201.10

76%

92%

3888.80

3599.61

4201.10

#MID

Higher

Feb

1317.75

1347.80

1229.10

1334.20

89%

96%

1347.80

1420.57

1334.20

#VLE

Higher

Feb

4075.90

4211.50

3764.30

4172.90

91%

4211.50

4416.60

4172.90

EDM6

Lower

Feb

99.325

99.390

99.245

99.270

17%

88%

99.245

98.833

99.270

EDU6

Lower

Feb

99.265

99.390

99.185

99.215

15%

87%

99.185

98.676

99.215

EDZ6

Lower

Feb

99.185

99.375

99.130

99.165

14%

85%

99.130

98.537

99.165

CDM6

Higher

Feb

71.39

74.18

70.94

74.03

95%

89%

74.18

76.15

74.03

ADM6

Higher

Feb

70.24

72.22

69.35

71.03

59%

85%

72.22

75.43

71.03

HGK6

Higher

Feb

207.15

216.40

200.20

213.25

81%

84%

216.40

240.21

213.25

HGN6

Higher

Feb

207.60

216.65

200.75

213.70

81%

92%

216.65

239.12

213.70

HOQ6

Higher

Feb

117.95

120.40

105.43

117.99

84%

94%

120.40

132.50

117.99

WU6

Lower

Feb

499.50

500.50

466.75

470.00

10%

88%

466.75

439.13

470.00

KWK6

Lower

Feb

482.25

483.50

448.50

457.50

26%

92%

448.50

420.24

457.50

KWN6

Lower

Feb

492.25

493.25

459.00

467.25

24%

88%

459.00

431.49

467.25

KWU6

Lower

Feb

505.75

506.00

472.50

480.75

25%

87%

472.50

446.52

480.75

LCM6

Higher

Feb

123.430

126.600

119.050

126.180

94%

84%

126.600

133.837

126.180

LCQ6

Higher

Feb

119.550

122.230

115.635

121.150

84%

86%

122.230

128.214

121.150

FCK6

Higher

Feb

155.830

158.150

146.550

158.050

99%

85%

158.150

167.222

158.050

LEK6

Lower

Feb

76.850

77.585

74.300

76.600

70%

100%

74.300

66.565

76.600

LEM6

Higher

Feb

80.650

81.230

78.100

80.750

85%

95%

81.230

88.528

80.750

LBN6

Higher

Feb

242.0

263.2

241.4

255.2

63%

84%

263.2

282.9

255.2

CTK6

Lower

Feb

61.60

62.85

54.53

56.50

24%

88%

54.53

50.43

56.50

CTN6

Lower

Feb

61.93

63.00

54.33

56.26

22%

88%

54.33

50.53

56.26

DJIA Index: The #DJ(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 16466.00(Prev Close), the market ended February at 16517.00(Month Close), that being 78%(Pct Range) off of 15503.00(Month Low) to 16796.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the DJIA Index also closed higher in February than January in 27(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 27, the #DJ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 26 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #DJ should exceed 16796.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 26 years) a potential move toward 17684.89(Average Objective).
Dow Jones Utilities: The #UTIL(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 611.35(Prev Close), the market ended February at 620.70(Month Close), that being 46%(Pct Range) off of 606.15(Month Low) to 637.95(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Dow Jones Utilities also closed higher in February than January in 16(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 16, the #UTIL went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #UTIL should exceed 637.95(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 668.26(Average Objective).
NASDAQ 100 Index: The #NDX(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 4279.20(Prev Close), the market ended February at 4201.10(Month Close), that being 76%(Pct Range) off of 3888.80(Month Low) to 4301.60(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 30 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the NASDAQ 100 Index also closed lower in February than January in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, the #NDX went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #NDX should penetrate 3888.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 3599.61(Average Objective).
S & P Midcap 400 Index: The #MID(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 1317.75(Prev Close), the market ended February at 1334.20(Month Close), that being 89%(Pct Range) off of 1229.10(Month Low) to 1347.80(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 35 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P Midcap 400 Index also closed higher in February than January in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, the #MID went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 23 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #MID should exceed 1347.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 23 years) a potential move toward 1420.57(Average Objective).
Value Line Index: The #VLE(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 4075.90(Prev Close), the market ended February at 4172.90(Month Close), that being 91%(Pct Range) off of 3764.30(Month Low) to 4211.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Value Line Index also closed higher in February than January in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, the #VLE went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #VLE should exceed 4211.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 4416.60(Average Objective).
June Eurodollars(CME): The EDM6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 99.325(Prev Close), the market ended February at 99.270(Month Close), that being 17%(Pct Range) off of 99.245(Month Low) to 99.390(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, EDM went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDM should penetrate 99.245(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 98.833(Average Objective).
September Eurodollars(CME): The EDU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 99.265(Prev Close), the market ended February at 99.215(Month Close), that being 15%(Pct Range) off of 99.185(Month Low) to 99.390(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, EDU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDU should penetrate 99.185(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 98.676(Average Objective).
December Eurodollars(CME): The EDZ6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 99.185(Prev Close), the market ended February at 99.165(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 99.130(Month Low) to 99.375(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 33 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Eurodollars(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, EDZ went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the EDZ should penetrate 99.130(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 98.537(Average Objective).
June Canadian Dollar(CME): The CDM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 71.39(Prev Close), the market ended February at 74.03(Month Close), that being 95%(Pct Range) off of 70.94(Month Low) to 74.18(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Canadian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, CDM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CDM should exceed 74.18(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 76.15(Average Objective).
June Australian Dollar(CME): The ADM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 70.24(Prev Close), the market ended February at 71.03(Month Close), that being 59%(Pct Range) off of 69.35(Month Low) to 72.22(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 29 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Australian Dollar(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, ADM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ADM should exceed 72.22(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 75.43(Average Objective).
May Copper(CMX): The HGK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 207.15(Prev Close), the market ended February at 213.25(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 200.20(Month Low) to 216.40(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Copper(CMX) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, HGK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGK should exceed 216.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 240.21(Average Objective).
July Copper(CMX): The HGN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 207.60(Prev Close), the market ended February at 213.70(Month Close), that being 81%(Pct Range) off of 200.75(Month Low) to 216.65(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Copper(CMX) also closed higher in February than January in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, HGN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 24 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HGN should exceed 216.65(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 24 years) a potential move toward 239.12(Average Objective).
August NY Harbor ULSD(NYM): The HOQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 117.95(Prev Close), the market ended February at 117.99(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 105.43(Month Low) to 120.40(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 34 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) also closed higher in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, HOQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 94%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the HOQ should exceed 120.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 132.50(Average Objective).
September Wheat(CBOT): The WU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 499.50(Prev Close), the market ended February at 470.00(Month Close), that being 10%(Pct Range) off of 466.75(Month Low) to 500.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in February than January in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, WU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WU should penetrate 466.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 439.13(Average Objective).
May Wheat(KCBT): The KWK6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 482.25(Prev Close), the market ended February at 457.50(Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 448.50(Month Low) to 483.50(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in February than January in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, KWK went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 448.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 420.24(Average Objective).
July Wheat(KCBT): The KWN6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 492.25(Prev Close), the market ended February at 467.25(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 459.00(Month Low) to 493.25(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in February than January in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, KWN went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWN should penetrate 459.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 431.49(Average Objective).
September Wheat(KCBT): The KWU6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 505.75(Prev Close), the market ended February at 480.75(Month Close), that being 25%(Pct Range) off of 472.50(Month Low) to 506.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the September Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in February than January in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, KWU went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWU should penetrate 472.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 446.52(Average Objective).
June Live Cattle(CME): The LCM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 123.430(Prev Close), the market ended February at 126.180(Month Close), that being 94%(Pct Range) off of 119.050(Month Low) to 126.600(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 25(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 25, LCM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCM should exceed 126.600(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 133.837(Average Objective).
August Live Cattle(CME): The LCQ6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 119.550(Prev Close), the market ended February at 121.150(Month Close), that being 84%(Pct Range) off of 115.635(Month Low) to 122.230(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the August Live Cattle(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, LCQ went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LCQ should exceed 122.230(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 128.214(Average Objective).
May Feeder Cattle(CME): The FCK6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 155.830(Prev Close), the market ended February at 158.050(Month Close), that being 99%(Pct Range) off of 146.550(Month Low) to 158.150(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Feeder Cattle(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 26(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 26, FCK went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the FCK should exceed 158.150(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 167.222(Average Objective).
May Lean Hogs(CME): The LEK6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 76.850(Prev Close), the market ended February at 76.600(Month Close), that being 70%(Pct Range) off of 74.300(Month Low) to 77.585(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 14 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in February than January in 7(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 7, LEK went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 7 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEK should penetrate 74.300(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 7 years) a potential move toward 66.565(Average Objective).
June Lean Hogs(CME): The LEM6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 80.650(Prev Close), the market ended February at 80.750(Month Close), that being 85%(Pct Range) off of 78.100(Month Low) to 81.230(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Lean Hogs(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 20(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 20, LEM went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEM should exceed 81.230(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 88.528(Average Objective).
July Lumber(CME): The LBN6(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 242.0(Prev Close), the market ended February at 255.2(Month Close), that being 63%(Pct Range) off of 241.4(Month Low) to 263.2(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 42 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lumber(CME) also closed higher in February than January in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LBN went on to exceed the February high within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBN should exceed 263.2(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 282.9(Average Objective).
May Cotton(ICE): The CTK6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 61.60(Prev Close), the market ended February at 56.50(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 54.53(Month Low) to 62.85(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CTK went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTK should penetrate 54.53(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 50.43(Average Objective).
July Cotton(ICE): The CTN6(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for February(Month). Compared to January's 61.93(Prev Close), the market ended February at 56.26(Month Close), that being 22%(Pct Range) off of 54.33(Month Low) to 63.00(Month High).

In comparing the January/February closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in February than January in 17(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 17, CTN went on to penetrate the February low within the next 2 months in 15 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTN should penetrate 54.33(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of April. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 15 years) a potential move toward 50.53(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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