MRCI's Scenario Summary

MRCI's Scenario^SM Summary

Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.

Scenario^SM Summary Jan 30, 2015

Historical Data

Scenario Data

Current Market Data

Mkt

Cond

Month

Prev
Close

Month
High

Month
Low

Month
Close

Pct
Range

Total
Years

Cond
Years

Action
Years

Pct

Scenario
Objective

Average
Objective

Last
Price

#OEX

Lower

Jan

908.40

914.45

872.05

875.80

87%

872.05

834.50

875.80

#SSNI

Higher

Jan

17451

17851

16593

17674

86%

89%

17851

19178

17674

#SP

Lower

Jan

2058.90

2072.35

1988.10

1995.00

89%

1988.10

1886.38

1995.00

SPM5

Lower

Jan

2045.30

2059.30

1976.00

1980.70

91%

1976.00

1880.10

1980.70

SFM5

Higher

Jan

100.95

119.75

98.18

109.71

53%

85%

119.75

125.12

109.71

PLJ5

Higher

Jan

1209.5

1290.3

1187.7

1238.2

49%

96%

1290.3

1408.7

1238.2

SMK5

Lower

Jan

340.90

351.20

314.50

324.00

26%

100%

314.50

296.91

324.00

SMN5

Lower

Jan

339.30

348.80

314.60

321.80

21%

96%

314.60

296.92

321.80

CK5

Lower

Jan

405.75

418.25

373.75

378.50

11%

91%

373.75

353.66

378.50

CN5

Lower

Jan

412.50

424.25

381.50

386.00

11%

96%

381.50

361.55

386.00

CZ5

Lower

Jan

421.00

432.00

396.75

400.75

11%

95%

396.75

378.09

400.75

WN5

Lower

Jan

597.50

609.00

507.00

511.50

92%

507.00

473.29

511.50

KWK5

Lower

Jan

631.50

645.75

539.25

542.75

89%

539.25

508.40

542.75

KWN5

Lower

Jan

635.75

646.75

543.50

546.25

89%

543.50

510.58

546.25

OK5

Lower

Jan

304.00

308.00

271.00

280.00

24%

87%

271.00

244.48

280.00

ON5

Lower

Jan

306.50

310.75

280.25

284.50

14%

88%

280.25

256.68

284.50

RRK5

Lower

Jan

12.00

12.03

10.80

10.84

92%

10.80

9.70

10.84

RRN5

Lower

Jan

12.24

12.26

11.03

11.07

93%

11.03

10.04

11.07

LEK5

Lower

Jan

88.280

88.730

76.725

80.450

31%

100%

76.725

72.314

80.450

KCK5

Lower

Jan

169.30

187.40

161.50

164.65

12%

95%

161.50

148.53

164.65

KCN5

Lower

Jan

171.90

189.80

164.20

167.35

12%

95%

164.20

150.96

167.35

SBN5

Higher

Jan

15.25

16.40

14.79

15.33

34%

86%

16.40

18.70

15.33

LBN5

Lower

Jan

334.7

335.0

308.0

324.2

60%

84%

308.0

286.4

324.2

CTN5

Lower

Jan

62.00

62.61

58.87

60.85

53%

87%

58.87

55.37

60.85

S & P 100(OEX): The #OEX(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 908.40(Prev Close), the market ended January at 875.80(Month Close), that being 9%(Pct Range) off of 872.05(Month Low) to 914.45(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 100(OEX) also closed lower in January than December in 15(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 15, the #OEX went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #OEX should penetrate 872.05(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 834.50(Average Objective).
Nikkei 225 Index: The #SSNI(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 17451(Prev Close), the market ended January at 17674(Month Close), that being 86%(Pct Range) off of 16593(Month Low) to 17851(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the Nikkei 225 Index also closed higher in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, the #SSNI went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SSNI should exceed 17851(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 19178(Average Objective).
S & P 500 Stock Index: The #SP(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2058.90(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1995.00(Month Close), that being 8%(Pct Range) off of 1988.10(Month Low) to 2072.35(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the S & P 500 Stock Index also closed lower in January than December in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, the #SP went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the the #SP should penetrate 1988.10(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 1886.38(Average Objective).
June S & P 500(CME): The SPM5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 2045.30(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1980.70(Month Close), that being 6%(Pct Range) off of 1976.00(Month Low) to 2059.30(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 32 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June S & P 500(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 11(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 11, SPM went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 10 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SPM should penetrate 1976.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 10 years) a potential move toward 1880.10(Average Objective).
June Swiss Franc(CME): The SFM5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 100.95(Prev Close), the market ended January at 109.71(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 98.18(Month Low) to 119.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 39 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the June Swiss Franc(CME) also closed higher in January than December in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, SFM went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 11 years(Action Years) or 85%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SFM should exceed 119.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 11 years) a potential move toward 125.12(Average Objective).
April Platinum(NYMEX): The PLJ5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 1209.5(Prev Close), the market ended January at 1238.2(Month Close), that being 49%(Pct Range) off of 1187.7(Month Low) to 1290.3(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the April Platinum(NYMEX) also closed higher in January than December in 28(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 28, PLJ went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 27 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the PLJ should exceed 1290.3(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 27 years) a potential move toward 1408.7(Average Objective).
May Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMK5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 340.90(Prev Close), the market ended January at 324.00(Month Close), that being 26%(Pct Range) off of 314.50(Month Low) to 351.20(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, SMK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMK should penetrate 314.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 296.91(Average Objective).
July Soybean Meal(CBOT): The SMN5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 339.30(Prev Close), the market ended January at 321.80(Month Close), that being 21%(Pct Range) off of 314.60(Month Low) to 348.80(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Soybean Meal(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, SMN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SMN should penetrate 314.60(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 296.92(Average Objective).
May Corn(CBOT): The CK5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 405.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 378.50(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 373.75(Month Low) to 418.25(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 91%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CK should penetrate 373.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 353.66(Average Objective).
July Corn(CBOT): The CN5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 412.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 386.00(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 381.50(Month Low) to 424.25(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 96%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CN should penetrate 381.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 361.55(Average Objective).
December Corn(CBOT): The CZ5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 421.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 400.75(Month Close), that being 11%(Pct Range) off of 396.75(Month Low) to 432.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 44 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the December Corn(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, CZ went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CZ should penetrate 396.75(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 378.09(Average Objective).
July Wheat(CBOT): The WN5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 597.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 511.50(Month Close), that being 4%(Pct Range) off of 507.00(Month Low) to 609.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, WN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 22 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the WN should penetrate 507.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 22 years) a potential move toward 473.29(Average Objective).
May Wheat(KCBT): The KWK5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 631.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 542.75(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 539.25(Month Low) to 645.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, KWK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 17 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWK should penetrate 539.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 17 years) a potential move toward 508.40(Average Objective).
July Wheat(KCBT): The KWN5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 635.75(Prev Close), the market ended January at 546.25(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 543.50(Month Low) to 646.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 38 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Wheat(KCBT) also closed lower in January than December in 18(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 18, KWN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 89%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KWN should penetrate 543.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 510.58(Average Objective).
May Oats(CBOT): The OK5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 304.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 280.00(Month Close), that being 24%(Pct Range) off of 271.00(Month Low) to 308.00(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, OK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the OK should penetrate 271.00(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 244.48(Average Objective).
July Oats(CBOT): The ON5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 306.50(Prev Close), the market ended January at 284.50(Month Close), that being 14%(Pct Range) off of 280.25(Month Low) to 310.75(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 40 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Oats(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 24(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 24, ON went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 21 years(Action Years) or 88%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the ON should penetrate 280.25(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 21 years) a potential move toward 256.68(Average Objective).
May Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRK5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 12.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 10.84(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 10.80(Month Low) to 12.03(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 28 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 13(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 13, RRK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 12 years(Action Years) or 92%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRK should penetrate 10.80(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 12 years) a potential move toward 9.70(Average Objective).
July Rough Rice(CBOT): The RRN5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 12.24(Prev Close), the market ended January at 11.07(Month Close), that being 3%(Pct Range) off of 11.03(Month Low) to 12.26(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 25 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Rough Rice(CBOT) also closed lower in January than December in 14(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 14, RRN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 13 years(Action Years) or 93%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the RRN should penetrate 11.03(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 13 years) a potential move toward 10.04(Average Objective).
May Lean Hogs(CME): The LEK5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 88.280(Prev Close), the market ended January at 80.450(Month Close), that being 31%(Pct Range) off of 76.725(Month Low) to 88.730(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 13 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Lean Hogs(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 4(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 4, LEK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 4 years(Action Years) or 100%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LEK should penetrate 76.725(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 4 years) a potential move toward 72.314(Average Objective).
May Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCK5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 169.30(Prev Close), the market ended January at 164.65(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 161.50(Month Low) to 187.40(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the May Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in January than December in 21(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 21, KCK went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCK should penetrate 161.50(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 148.53(Average Objective).
July Coffee "C"(ICE): The KCN5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 171.90(Prev Close), the market ended January at 167.35(Month Close), that being 12%(Pct Range) off of 164.20(Month Low) to 189.80(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Coffee "C"(ICE) also closed lower in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, KCN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 18 years(Action Years) or 95%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the KCN should penetrate 164.20(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 18 years) a potential move toward 150.96(Average Objective).
July Sugar #11(ICE): The SBN5(Mkt) ended Higher(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 15.25(Prev Close), the market ended January at 15.33(Month Close), that being 34%(Pct Range) off of 14.79(Month Low) to 16.40(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Sugar #11(ICE) also closed higher in January than December in 22(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 22, SBN went on to exceed the January high within the next 2 months in 19 years(Action Years) or 86%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the SBN should exceed 16.40(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 19 years) a potential move toward 18.70(Average Objective).
July Lumber(CME): The LBN5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 334.7(Prev Close), the market ended January at 324.2(Month Close), that being 60%(Pct Range) off of 308.0(Month Low) to 335.0(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 41 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Lumber(CME) also closed lower in January than December in 19(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 19, LBN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 16 years(Action Years) or 84%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the LBN should penetrate 308.0(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 16 years) a potential move toward 286.4(Average Objective).
July Cotton(ICE): The CTN5(Mkt) ended Lower(Cond) for January(Month). Compared to December's 62.00(Prev Close), the market ended January at 60.85(Month Close), that being 53%(Pct Range) off of 58.87(Month Low) to 62.61(Month High).

In comparing the December/January closes for each of the last 45 years(Total Years), Scenario found that the July Cotton(ICE) also closed lower in January than December in 23(Cond Years) of those years. Of those 23, CTN went on to penetrate the January low within the next 2 months in 20 years(Action Years) or 87%(Pct) of the time.

Therefore, the historical odds are high that the CTN should penetrate 58.87(Scenario Objective) by no later than the end of March. If it does so, Scenario would further project (based on normalizing those previous 20 years) a potential move toward 55.37(Average Objective).

Moore Research Center, Inc.

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