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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for Dow Jones Utilities as of May 16, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   29 28 25 28 26 24 32 23 32 23 18
Exceeded High   23 21 22 26 20 21 27 19 21 16 14
Scenario Percentage   79% 75% 88% 93% 77% 88% 84% 83% 66% 70% 78%
Avg Max Increase   5.53% 5.48% 4.72% 4.52% 5.76% 5.82% 5.61% 5.56% 6.47% 5.07% 3.61%
Max Increase   14.30% 11.22% 9.82% 23.61% 13.93% 14.31% 12.72% 13.75% 12.16% 9.27% 7.92%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 19 17 15 19 14 17 19 18 15 18
Avg Max Decline   -2.07% -1.48% -1.48% -1.18% -1.80% -1.25% -1.70% -1.89% -1.61% -1.19% -1.21%
Max Decline   -7.28% -3.93% -4.42% -3.65% -6.64% -7.26% -6.05% -6.33% -3.78% -2.23% -2.80%
Avg Days to Max Decline   11 7 8 6 12 7 8 9 5 7 4
2024 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes    
Action   No   Yes No     Yes Yes No    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   16 17 20 17 19 21 13 22 13 21 27
Penetrated Low   11 10 11 13 14 12 5 12 9 14 16
Scenario Percentage   69% 59% 55% 76% 74% 57% 38% 55% 69% 67% 59%
Avg Max Decline   4.59% 8.71% 8.54% 6.69% 8.68% 11.50% 5.38% 4.77% 6.95% 7.78% 6.69%
Max Decline   12.12% 35.33% 31.91% 17.96% 38.37% 31.31% 8.28% 14.90% 14.13% 21.92% 29.34%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 20 15 17 12 16 14 13 19 15 19
Avg Max Increase   -1.66% -1.55% -1.78% -2.41% -1.87% -2.19% -0.90% -2.10% -2.49% -1.29% -1.79%
Max Increase   -4.09% -5.76% -4.65% -6.43% -5.36% -6.99% -2.17% -7.55% -4.92% -4.80% -10.26%
Avg Days to Max Increase   6 8 11 11 10 7 3 10 7 2 5
2024 Contract Condition     Yes     Yes Yes       Yes Yes
Action     Yes     Yes Yes       Yes Not Yet
High 939.80 980.00 970.65 932.65 958.65 935.35 902.15 836.25 874.60 917.70 905.20 867.30
Low 877.50 928.20 885.35 884.00 896.60 865.90 811.00 765.50 817.20 861.80 832.75 818.75
Close/Last 939.80 959.60 900.35 906.65 931.20 872.70 816.55 823.90 866.75 881.65 853.05 840.95

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