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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Dec 27, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   23 25 24 22 21 22 18 26 17 24 25
Exceeded High   19 18 18 18 17 16 12 23 14 17 10
Scenario Percentage   83% 72% 75% 82% 81% 73% 67% 88% 82% 71% 40%
Avg Max Increase   8.30% 7.10% 10.84% 14.52% 13.73% 12.04% 11.64% 10.83% 13.66% 9.87% 8.09%
Max Increase   25.95% 14.06% 36.01% 52.81% 32.39% 30.45% 29.58% 39.86% 31.35% 22.70% 14.09%
Avg Days To Max Increase   20 19 14 15 16 17 19 16 14 12 9
Avg Max Decline   -2.10% -1.97% -2.50% -2.06% -2.13% -2.15% -4.72% -2.41% -2.24% -2.23% -0.83%
Max Decline   -7.74% -5.44% -7.95% -7.71% -6.58% -10.98% -8.86% -15.85% -7.84% -6.35% -3.44%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 12 13 7 7 8 9 9 7 6 1
2023 Contract Condition     Yes Yes     Yes   Yes   Yes Yes
Action     Yes No     No   Yes   Yes Not Yet
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   22 20 21 23 24 23 27 19 28 21 20
Penetrated Low   16 13 15 17 23 20 21 17 25 16 12
Scenario Percentage   73% 65% 71% 74% 96% 87% 78% 89% 89% 76% 60%
Avg Max Decline   6.28% 6.65% 5.34% 7.37% 6.71% 9.13% 7.81% 7.78% 6.12% 5.34% 5.86%
Max Decline   19.62% 13.66% 13.88% 13.77% 18.87% 18.07% 24.50% 34.83% 18.14% 12.73% 24.99%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 16 19 19 19 18 18 15 13 12 9
Avg Max Increase   -1.19% -2.43% -2.62% -2.52% -4.50% -3.21% -2.10% -2.73% -2.01% -2.23% -0.96%
Max Increase   -5.77% -7.61% -9.16% -9.66% -16.12% -12.96% -8.26% -7.05% -7.10% -7.41% -3.13%
Avg Days to Max Increase   5 10 10 14 11 6 9 8 10 3 1
2023 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes Yes   Yes   Yes    
Action   No     Yes No   Yes   Yes    
High 428.40 415.50 428.10 437.70 424.50 410.10 432.60 424.70 421.00 409.70 448.40 479.00
Low 391.50 388.90 393.30 397.80 399.50 361.80 362.40 384.70 379.00 380.80 366.50 422.50
Close/Last 411.60 394.30 415.60 419.80 405.20 365.00 397.30 395.90 404.00 381.20 431.00 442.20

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