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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for October Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Dec 27, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   21 24 22 24 24 22 21 22 19 25 17
Exceeded High   15 20 18 18 17 17 16 16 12 20 9
Scenario Percentage   71% 83% 82% 75% 71% 77% 76% 73% 63% 80% 53%
Avg Max Increase   8.78% 7.96% 9.66% 6.97% 11.58% 14.75% 14.27% 12.09% 12.53% 8.82% 7.24%
Max Increase   36.92% 22.94% 27.90% 15.77% 37.45% 56.84% 34.62% 30.92% 31.40% 20.50% 11.61%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 19 22 17 13 16 15 17 19 13 7
Avg Max Decline   -2.32% -2.28% -1.65% -1.93% -2.28% -2.09% -1.91% -2.28% -4.63% -1.64% -1.34%
Max Decline   -4.97% -10.03% -6.28% -5.31% -4.60% -7.19% -6.45% -10.26% -8.64% -3.99% -6.42%
Avg Days to Max Decline   12 13 7 12 14 7 5 9 8 8 2
2023 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes  
Action   Yes Yes   Yes No     No No Not Yet  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   24 20 23 21 20 23 24 22 26 18 28
Penetrated Low   17 15 19 14 14 18 21 20 20 16 20
Scenario Percentage   71% 75% 83% 67% 70% 78% 88% 91% 77% 89% 71%
Avg Max Decline   5.38% 6.02% 6.28% 6.19% 5.58% 7.08% 7.14% 8.89% 8.28% 7.19% 3.89%
Max Decline   10.37% 12.65% 19.24% 13.64% 13.34% 14.83% 19.80% 19.16% 25.57% 32.20% 13.03%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 16 17 14 20 18 20 18 18 12 6
Avg Max Increase   -1.33% -1.45% -1.93% -2.14% -2.73% -2.54% -4.68% -3.40% -2.40% -2.32% -0.95%
Max Increase   -4.64% -4.19% -6.57% -7.74% -8.47% -9.57% -17.08% -12.69% -9.34% -4.89% -5.03%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 8 9 11 10 13 12 7 11 8 1
2023 Contract Condition       Yes     Yes Yes       Yes
Action       No     Yes No       Yes
High 396.50 395.00 429.70 417.50 430.70 440.70 427.20 411.80 432.20 429.70 423.00 410.80
Low 376.70 375.90 392.40 391.70 396.10 400.70 401.10 364.20 365.10 386.00 383.10 374.30
Close/Last 385.60 394.10 413.60 397.30 418.00 423.20 407.30 367.30 398.80 401.60 404.70 375.90

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