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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Dec 27, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   21 22 23 22 26 25 23 20 24 19 26
Exceeded High   17 15 18 18 20 19 17 14 18 11 20
Scenario Percentage   81% 68% 78% 82% 77% 76% 74% 70% 75% 58% 77%
Avg Max Increase   8.00% 9.19% 8.51% 9.42% 7.73% 11.34% 14.88% 16.40% 12.21% 13.45% 5.25%
Max Increase   16.31% 33.81% 19.81% 29.54% 19.70% 40.06% 58.77% 35.87% 29.95% 32.53% 11.15%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 18 21 22 20 14 16 17 18 16 10
Avg Max Decline   -2.00% -1.86% -2.18% -2.03% -2.57% -2.14% -2.32% -2.29% -2.00% -4.54% -1.72%
Max Decline   -10.00% -4.81% -9.94% -6.67% -9.06% -5.16% -10.17% -6.53% -9.96% -8.69% -4.53%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 11 12 7 13 13 8 10 9 8 4
2023 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes     Yes Yes  
Action   Yes Yes Yes   Yes No     Yes Not Yet  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   22 22 22 23 19 20 22 25 21 26 19
Penetrated Low   16 16 16 20 13 14 19 24 18 21 12
Scenario Percentage   73% 73% 73% 87% 68% 70% 86% 96% 86% 81% 63%
Avg Max Decline   5.31% 5.38% 6.26% 6.38% 6.42% 6.00% 6.71% 7.00% 9.04% 5.99% 3.32%
Max Decline   15.00% 10.98% 13.85% 19.72% 12.62% 11.56% 15.48% 20.60% 18.89% 15.60% 7.08%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 15 16 16 14 20 20 19 16 8 11
Avg Max Increase   -1.55% -1.55% -1.57% -2.24% -2.02% -2.39% -3.27% -4.38% -3.29% -1.66% -2.09%
Max Increase   -4.58% -4.50% -4.38% -6.98% -8.16% -6.64% -9.68% -15.88% -13.58% -11.50% -5.37%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 10 8 10 10 10 13 12 7 7 4
2023 Contract Condition         Yes     Yes Yes     Yes
Action         No     Yes No     Not Yet
High 410.50 400.80 402.50 441.70 432.30 444.00 454.50 440.80 420.40 436.50 451.00 434.80
Low 384.30 381.80 382.30 399.40 406.00 413.40 410.50 408.60 373.70 377.10 394.50 397.20
Close/Last 387.90 392.30 401.30 428.20 415.20 430.00 435.70 416.00 378.10 406.10 423.80 418.70

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