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MRCI's Scenario Study
MRCI's
Scenario
SM
Study
Scenario
SM
Study for August Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of Apr 30, 2011
Condition 1
: Higher Monthly Close.
Action
---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Tested Years
35
44
44
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
Closed Higher
17
21
24
21
22
21
25
25
25
26
17
Exceeded High
13
18
13
15
17
18
20
17
19
19
4
Scenario Percentage
76%
86%
54%
71%
77%
86%
80%
68%
76%
73%
24%
Avg Max Increase
11.51%
8.46%
10.40%
10.63%
10.83%
11.25%
10.83%
22.71%
15.99%
10.09%
7.87%
Max Increase
21.18%
38.22%
42.68%
48.61%
30.93%
35.17%
31.55%
86.01%
37.46%
21.51%
20.76%
Avg Days To Max Increase
15
18
17
22
18
19
18
20
16
14
6
Avg Max Decline
-1.44%
-2.02%
-1.52%
-2.13%
-1.89%
-2.87%
-1.60%
-1.53%
-1.50%
-1.28%
-0.77%
Max Decline
-5.01%
-9.99%
-5.09%
-9.97%
-7.12%
-19.86%
-4.98%
-5.66%
-6.22%
-9.50%
-1.61%
Avg Days to Max Decline
7
9
5
12
6
10
9
8
7
4
2
2011 Contract Condition
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Action
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Not Yet
Copyright © 1989-
Moore Research Center, Inc.
All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2
: Lower Monthly Close.
Action
---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Tested Years
35
44
44
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
45
Closed Lower
17
23
20
23
23
24
20
20
20
18
28
Penetrated Low
16
16
13
16
22
19
13
14
18
14
19
Scenario Percentage
94%
70%
65%
70%
96%
79%
65%
70%
90%
78%
68%
Avg Max Decline
6.33%
6.49%
7.91%
9.00%
5.69%
6.10%
6.43%
6.05%
9.65%
11.49%
4.88%
Max Decline
17.88%
18.62%
29.20%
27.35%
15.00%
29.32%
25.16%
15.00%
41.12%
35.61%
14.38%
Avg Days To Max Decline
14
14
15
17
17
13
15
19
16
9
6
Avg Max Increase
-1.58%
-2.29%
-1.55%
-1.99%
-2.01%
-2.20%
-1.58%
-4.56%
-4.26%
-0.84%
-0.46%
Max Increase
-5.56%
-6.86%
-4.21%
-9.70%
-5.37%
-8.30%
-4.64%
-9.99%
-27.41%
-12.89%
-1.60%
Avg Days to Max Increase
8
10
9
5
8
9
8
11
10
4
1
2011 Contract Condition
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Action
No
Yes
Not Yet
High
302.00
319.40
340.40
364.70
365.40
379.50
386.00
380.60
375.50
364.90
Low
283.50
294.60
292.50
316.60
323.80
354.80
347.50
344.50
345.00
360.50
Close/Last
294.60
309.80
334.60
333.60
364.30
374.30
360.90
375.50
364.10
363.20
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