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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of May 09, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   24 18 20 23 18 24 23 27 24 19 27
Exceeded High   18 16 14 16 15 19 19 19 18 13 17
Scenario Percentage   75% 89% 70% 70% 83% 79% 83% 70% 75% 68% 63%
Avg Max Increase   9.70% 11.76% 9.32% 9.97% 9.00% 10.52% 9.50% 13.46% 15.01% 14.87% 9.00%
Max Increase   29.23% 21.52% 21.36% 26.78% 21.15% 29.48% 24.47% 53.72% 65.68% 39.51% 27.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 19 17 15 18 17 20 18 15 12 9
Avg Max Decline   -0.97% -1.73% -3.29% -2.18% -2.76% -1.80% -2.62% -2.78% -2.97% -2.00% -0.80%
Max Decline   -3.38% -6.07% -10.74% -5.56% -9.52% -7.64% -7.96% -8.68% -10.86% -6.22% -4.93%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 6 9 9 12 5 10 11 8 8 3
2024 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes       Yes Yes Yes  
Action   Yes   Yes No       Yes Yes    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 26 25 22 27 21 22 18 21 26 18
Penetrated Low   15 24 17 16 20 19 16 11 14 22 11
Scenario Percentage   71% 92% 68% 73% 74% 90% 73% 61% 67% 85% 61%
Avg Max Decline   7.40% 5.84% 6.38% 6.46% 7.51% 5.91% 6.22% 6.12% 6.89% 5.03% 4.25%
Max Decline   33.13% 17.31% 15.59% 12.82% 15.05% 15.05% 12.36% 9.92% 12.75% 14.65% 8.91%
Avg Days To Max Decline   12 15 15 15 16 17 14 18 21 12 5
Avg Max Increase   -1.92% -1.81% -1.98% -2.23% -1.47% -2.13% -2.72% -2.38% -3.18% -2.55% -0.27%
Max Increase   -4.96% -5.35% -6.93% -6.47% -4.58% -5.65% -8.62% -4.61% -9.98% -9.96% -2.05%
Avg Days to Max Increase   7 11 6 11 6 9 11 12 9 5 1
2024 Contract Condition     Yes     Yes Yes Yes        
Action     Yes     Yes Yes No        
High 404.10 399.70 395.60 410.00 434.20 406.20 385.50 367.30 350.70 361.40 390.00  
Low 372.30 366.70 371.90 369.60 398.30 382.70 351.30 326.70 329.20 328.90 344.70  
Close/Last 375.80 392.10 374.50 402.30 406.80 386.00 366.60 331.20 341.00 351.90 372.90  

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