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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Silver(CMX) as of Jun 30, 2022
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   17 23 14 25 22 25 21 16 22 29 19
Exceeded High   13 16 11 21 15 16 13 13 21 21 11
Scenario Percentage   76% 70% 79% 84% 68% 64% 62% 81% 95% 72% 58%
Avg Max Increase   9.57% 11.05% 14.67% 15.82% 19.42% 12.14% 16.85% 22.65% 15.90% 12.00% 7.89%
Max Increase   26.13% 42.22% 60.39% 81.96% 67.95% 34.44% 67.34% 115.36% 42.86% 24.65% 15.74%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 13 16 16 14 15 14 16 17 17 13
Avg Max Decline   -2.01% -2.26% -1.69% -3.70% -1.62% -3.20% -3.70% -1.80% -3.78% -2.78% -1.37%
Max Decline   -10.75% -9.91% -7.22% -13.99% -10.68% -11.59% -10.90% -10.80% -14.99% -14.24% -3.66%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 9 6 9 4 5 6 4 13 8 3
2022 Contract Condition   Yes Yes         Yes   Yes   Yes
Action   Yes No         Yes   Yes   Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   28 22 31 20 23 20 24 29 23 16 26
Penetrated Low   23 17 21 15 13 14 18 24 15 10 20
Scenario Percentage   82% 77% 68% 75% 57% 70% 75% 83% 65% 63% 77%
Avg Max Decline   9.71% 9.55% 7.19% 7.36% 11.68% 10.47% 9.21% 7.76% 9.24% 8.35% 8.01%
Max Decline   31.14% 25.10% 19.78% 17.69% 38.41% 31.24% 24.69% 33.78% 24.57% 17.27% 57.10%
Avg Days To Max Decline   20 14 16 20 20 21 14 15 19 11 11
Avg Max Increase   -2.38% -2.58% -2.77% -3.95% -3.19% -4.70% -3.49% -2.69% -4.36% -4.11% -2.12%
Max Increase   -9.64% -6.26% -8.28% -30.43% -14.94% -12.66% -8.49% -9.95% -12.35% -6.52% -8.06%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 6 12 9 13 20 9 6 17 9 3
2022 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes   Yes  
Action       Yes Yes Yes No   Yes   Not Yet  
High 2711.0 2669.3 2893.0 2874.0 2691.0 2619.0 2499.0 2496.0 2554.5 2348.0 2475.5 2567.5
Low 2420.5 2480.0 2634.0 2577.0 2468.0 2240.0 2146.0 2204.0 2270.5 2141.0 2194.5 2198.5
Close/Last 2468.2 2598.2 2812.4 2628.8 2565.1 2405.9 2209.0 2399.2 2281.5 2335.2 2239.3 2436.1

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