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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Rough Rice(CBOT) as of May 13, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   23 29 30 33 34 34 34 34 34 35 35
Closed Higher   13 16 11 22 16 16 10 18 19 15 13
Exceeded High   10 11 7 14 12 11 10 15 12 11 7
Scenario Percentage   77% 69% 64% 64% 75% 69% 100% 83% 63% 73% 54%
Avg Max Increase   6.83% 5.59% 7.01% 7.09% 9.46% 7.69% 14.58% 13.67% 13.73% 10.97% 4.95%
Max Increase   26.96% 17.78% 13.31% 17.80% 24.41% 33.38% 40.53% 30.64% 59.33% 36.89% 9.55%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 13 11 18 17 16 22 19 9 11 14
Avg Max Decline   -1.70% -1.14% -1.55% -1.07% -2.48% -2.38% -2.40% -3.06% -2.60% -1.88% -0.92%
Max Decline   -6.01% -5.05% -5.11% -4.76% -11.53% -7.84% -10.82% -7.78% -6.82% -13.01% -3.96%
Avg Days to Max Decline   9 10 6 7 10 12 7 11 5 7 1
2024 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes   Yes Yes   Yes    
Action   Yes     Yes   Yes Yes   Not Yet    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   23 29 30 33 34 34 34 34 34 35 35
Closed Lower   10 13 19 11 18 18 24 16 15 20 22
Penetrated Low   7 11 14 10 16 17 18 10 11 15 9
Scenario Percentage   70% 85% 74% 91% 89% 94% 75% 63% 73% 75% 41%
Avg Max Decline   6.31% 6.27% 5.36% 6.85% 9.17% 9.52% 8.81% 10.45% 8.50% 8.35% 4.77%
Max Decline   12.38% 12.73% 15.20% 14.46% 22.56% 18.76% 19.56% 30.58% 21.10% 20.07% 10.04%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 16 12 20 16 14 20 16 11 11 10
Avg Max Increase   -0.60% -1.15% -1.78% -2.75% -1.59% -1.78% -2.90% -3.73% -4.85% -2.44% -2.23%
Max Increase   -2.36% -6.85% -4.90% -13.34% -5.08% -10.88% -7.38% -9.42% -27.43% -11.68% -7.69%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 8 9 11 7 9 11 10 16 4 2
2024 Contract Condition     Yes Yes   Yes     Yes   Yes  
Action     Yes Yes   No     Yes      
High 17.10 17.40 17.45 17.15 17.90 17.83 18.50 19.30 18.75 19.61 19.55  
Low 15.88 16.67 16.42 16.57 16.39 17.25 17.50 18.22 16.67 16.22 18.25  
Close/Last 16.52 17.37 16.82 16.63 17.88 17.68 18.19 18.35 16.69 19.28 18.73  

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