MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for March Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jan 01, 2019 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb |
| Tested Years | 28 | 29 | 30 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 41 | 42 | |
| Closed Higher | 14 | 10 | 12 | 23 | 14 | 24 | 21 | 21 | 24 | 32 | 23 | |
| Exceeded High | 8 | 8 | 11 | 20 | 12 | 21 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 26 | 13 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 57% | 80% | 92% | 87% | 86% | 88% | 76% | 90% | 88% | 81% | 57% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 10.56% | 8.26% | 12.88% | 10.49% | 13.06% | 14.29% | 13.18% | 19.52% | 23.81% | 17.22% | 8.80% | |
| Max Increase | 34.24% | 18.37% | 27.79% | 32.84% | 43.03% | 35.66% | 32.67% | 86.19% | 85.89% | 72.27% | 26.13% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 17 | 14 | 21 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 20 | 17 | 17 | 17 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -4.45% | -3.00% | -0.86% | -3.19% | -0.77% | -2.50% | -2.38% | -4.47% | -2.52% | -3.00% | -2.97% | |
| Max Decline | -10.81% | -11.93% | -6.65% | -9.29% | -4.50% | -15.11% | -13.35% | -15.60% | -7.88% | -9.85% | -8.11% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 13 | 5 | 11 | 10 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 10 | 6 | 7 | 4 | |
| 2018 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||
| Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet | |||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
