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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Palladium(NYMEX) as of Jan 01, 2014
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   23 24 25 31 32 33 34 35 36 36 37
Closed Higher   10 8 9 19 12 20 17 18 22 31 19
Exceeded High   5 6 8 16 10 17 13 16 20 25 8
Scenario Percentage   50% 75% 89% 84% 83% 85% 76% 89% 91% 81% 42%
Avg Max Increase   14.24% 9.69% 12.10% 11.52% 14.95% 15.70% 14.89% 22.09% 24.66% 17.44% 9.56%
Max Increase   34.24% 18.37% 27.79% 32.84% 43.03% 35.66% 32.67% 86.19% 85.89% 72.27% 26.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase   19 14 20 17 16 15 17 20 17 15 16
Avg Max Decline   -4.98% -3.40% -1.29% -3.56% -0.27% -1.75% -2.44% -3.98% -2.63% -2.81% -3.85%
Max Decline   -10.81% -11.93% -6.65% -9.29% -4.50% -5.66% -13.35% -12.72% -7.88% -9.85% -8.11%
Avg Days to Max Decline   15 3 9 11 7 9 6 10 6 7 3
2013 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes  
Action   No     Yes Yes No   Yes Yes Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   23 24 25 31 32 33 34 35 36 36 37
Closed Lower   12 15 16 12 20 13 17 17 14 5 18
Penetrated Low   10 9 14 11 15 10 12 10 7 2 5
Scenario Percentage   83% 60% 88% 92% 75% 77% 71% 59% 50% 40% 28%
Avg Max Decline   10.59% 8.41% 7.16% 12.62% 12.14% 13.39% 13.65% 12.63% 9.94% 4.42% 8.64%
Max Decline   23.01% 18.71% 19.55% 48.57% 45.76% 22.13% 27.97% 44.17% 29.35% 4.72% 18.46%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 15 12 18 16 16 17 14 22 3 9
Avg Max Increase   -1.26% -2.07% -1.47% -1.34% -1.96% -3.04% -5.08% -1.20% -5.62% -2.87% -0.20%
Max Increase   -6.65% -8.34% -11.53% -11.96% -12.56% -7.26% -18.35% -5.24% -14.46% -4.79% -3.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 9 5 11 8 8 11 3 12 6 1
2013 Contract Condition     Yes Yes       Yes       Yes
Action     Yes Yes       No       Not Yet
High 718.20 685.55 684.25 636.05 600.20 661.55 704.15 677.75 692.50 710.80 760.50 777.60
Low 647.40 635.60 590.80 565.20 563.25 570.80 619.35 589.75 599.70 671.35 663.20 708.30
Close/Last 657.05 685.55 615.15 585.85 593.35 630.90 642.05 611.40 688.20 703.35 745.70 732.60

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