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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Natural Gas(NYM) as of May 16, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   32 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 34
Closed Higher   16 17 15 12 10 13 17 17 21 21 15
Exceeded High   13 14 12 10 8 10 15 12 21 20 10
Scenario Percentage   81% 82% 80% 83% 80% 77% 88% 71% 100% 95% 67%
Avg Max Increase   14.46% 8.54% 7.37% 7.13% 10.30% 15.67% 15.86% 19.89% 17.55% 14.39% 10.64%
Max Increase   40.16% 23.32% 15.07% 16.38% 26.86% 45.30% 32.40% 51.42% 64.12% 45.35% 19.70%
Avg Days To Max Increase   19 18 18 14 19 19 24 18 16 13 14
Avg Max Decline   -2.81% -2.49% -3.62% -2.71% -4.71% -1.87% -3.77% -2.76% -4.51% -5.27% -2.36%
Max Decline   -10.94% -6.52% -12.87% -10.14% -13.36% -5.67% -15.31% -7.01% -8.65% -14.73% -12.76%
Avg Days to Max Decline   12 12 12 5 18 7 8 9 11 8 2
2024 Contract Condition         Yes             Yes
Action         Yes              
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May
Tested Years   32 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 33 34
Closed Lower   16 16 16 20 23 20 16 15 12 12 19
Penetrated Low   13 13 14 15 19 15 13 9 11 9 14
Scenario Percentage   81% 81% 88% 75% 83% 75% 81% 60% 92% 75% 74%
Avg Max Decline   7.68% 8.30% 8.21% 12.81% 13.05% 11.93% 13.92% 13.60% 11.61% 14.31% 10.04%
Max Decline   16.71% 21.80% 18.48% 22.56% 30.46% 35.94% 26.72% 25.72% 28.35% 28.02% 22.12%
Avg Days To Max Decline   19 16 22 19 16 16 23 19 18 15 17
Avg Max Increase   -1.57% -1.33% -5.36% -2.55% -2.25% -2.60% -5.93% -6.45% -3.87% -4.98% -3.31%
Max Increase   -5.10% -3.76% -19.21% -12.60% -7.26% -12.14% -11.88% -20.94% -11.42% -10.19% -13.44%
Avg Days to Max Increase   3 12 15 7 8 5 13 11 7 10 4
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action   Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes No Yes Not Yet  
High 3.420 3.398 3.445 3.372 3.535 3.557 2.979 3.020 2.583 2.647 2.455 2.753
Low 3.178 3.261 3.232 3.214 3.238 2.913 2.457 2.497 2.128 2.273 2.246 2.255
Close/Last 3.363 3.333 3.327 3.289 3.488 2.948 2.652 2.536 2.507 2.340 2.319 2.687

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