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| ScenarioSM Study for April Natural Gas(NYM) as of May 09, 2024 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb |
| Tested Years | 32 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | |
| Closed Higher | 21 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 10 | 12 | 15 | 17 | |
| Exceeded High | 18 | 13 | 11 | 13 | 14 | 14 | 9 | 6 | 9 | 12 | 12 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 86% | 76% | 69% | 87% | 82% | 82% | 64% | 60% | 75% | 80% | 71% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 10.41% | 8.62% | 8.19% | 13.96% | 9.02% | 7.78% | 11.00% | 24.65% | 25.07% | 21.86% | 14.29% | |
| Max Increase | 40.87% | 24.57% | 30.16% | 44.89% | 24.32% | 17.16% | 32.21% | 36.90% | 91.38% | 61.63% | 51.04% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 15 | 17 | 15 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 15 | 24 | 20 | 16 | 17 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -2.54% | -1.38% | -2.13% | -3.02% | -2.43% | -4.11% | -3.70% | -1.94% | -3.33% | -4.06% | -3.32% | |
| Max Decline | -7.88% | -4.92% | -4.33% | -11.95% | -6.23% | -13.58% | -11.26% | -5.51% | -10.03% | -17.28% | -10.23% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 8 | 11 | 12 | 9 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 8 | 5 | 4 | |
| 2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | ||||||||||
| Action | Yes | No | ||||||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
