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ScenarioSM Study for October Live Cattle(CME) as of Dec 27, 2023 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 32 | 32 | 30 | 29 | 24 | 22 | 19 | 25 | 28 | 17 | 27 | |
Exceeded High | 29 | 28 | 27 | 23 | 20 | 16 | 16 | 24 | 24 | 16 | 22 | |
Scenario Percentage | 91% | 88% | 90% | 79% | 83% | 73% | 84% | 96% | 86% | 94% | 81% | |
Avg Max Increase | 3.39% | 3.48% | 3.67% | 4.64% | 4.26% | 4.64% | 6.08% | 5.29% | 4.52% | 5.97% | 5.12% | |
Max Increase | 8.52% | 9.77% | 9.32% | 15.73% | 15.94% | 10.93% | 12.73% | 17.31% | 13.64% | 25.05% | 18.26% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 20 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 18 | 18 | 16 | 15 | 18 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.35% | -0.76% | -1.08% | -1.28% | -1.38% | -1.23% | -1.93% | -1.85% | -1.82% | -1.56% | -0.69% | |
Max Decline | -3.97% | -1.71% | -3.37% | -5.63% | -5.37% | -3.85% | -4.81% | -4.99% | -8.32% | -6.73% | -3.21% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 9 | 11 | 9 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 9 | 6 | 12 | 4 | |
2023 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.