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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for August NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Dec 06, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   36 39 39 40 41 42 43 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   20 18 17 19 19 19 21 29 29 23 24
Exceeded High   15 14 11 15 17 15 19 28 23 17 21
Scenario Percentage   75% 78% 65% 79% 89% 79% 90% 97% 79% 74% 88%
Avg Max Increase   7.66% 7.17% 8.82% 9.70% 10.36% 13.30% 11.83% 11.89% 10.73% 11.24% 6.85%
Max Increase   25.68% 17.53% 19.33% 18.14% 25.47% 42.54% 33.63% 41.95% 30.49% 24.23% 21.56%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 15 24 17 17 12 16 17 16 17 16
Avg Max Decline   -1.35% -1.69% -2.18% -1.20% -1.81% -1.57% -2.02% -2.59% -2.92% -2.82% -1.85%
Max Decline   -4.78% -8.34% -4.20% -7.91% -7.49% -6.01% -13.58% -9.65% -15.01% -10.81% -5.19%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 4 11 6 8 3 9 8 8 7 4
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes       Yes   Yes     Yes
Action   Yes No       Yes   Yes     Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   36 39 39 40 41 42 43 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   16 21 22 21 22 23 22 16 16 22 21
Penetrated Low   10 17 19 17 15 15 13 13 11 16 14
Scenario Percentage   63% 81% 86% 81% 68% 65% 59% 81% 69% 73% 67%
Avg Max Decline   11.98% 9.83% 12.77% 13.89% 14.74% 14.07% 10.64% 10.02% 9.02% 8.25% 8.38%
Max Decline   37.28% 39.95% 37.73% 34.53% 36.41% 38.82% 45.89% 25.01% 21.32% 19.78% 19.71%
Avg Days To Max Decline   19 16 18 18 18 15 16 15 14 15 16
Avg Max Increase   -1.88% -1.59% -1.99% -1.55% -3.51% -1.64% -2.50% -4.09% -3.56% -1.93% -1.89%
Max Increase   -10.49% -6.12% -5.62% -6.30% -10.36% -6.18% -10.29% -14.23% -7.91% -8.30% -9.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase   11 8 6 6 8 4 12 12 14 8 3
2024 Contract Condition       Yes Yes Yes   Yes   Yes Yes  
Action       Yes Yes No   No   Yes Yes  
High 261.93 272.20 283.72 277.62 271.26 257.50 258.90 264.76 270.30 276.59 254.96 260.05
Low 228.32 261.39 267.95 252.87 249.00 235.88 237.01 245.67 250.06 251.19 239.14 228.16
Close/Last 261.93 267.25 273.60 263.72 256.75 239.11 255.38 253.15 261.79 254.77 240.36 253.31

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