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ScenarioSM Study for July NY Harbor ULSD(NYM) as of Jan 01, 2019 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May |
Tested Years | 30 | 33 | 35 | 35 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | 39 | |
Closed Higher | 22 | 19 | 18 | 15 | 19 | 16 | 16 | 19 | 27 | 28 | 20 | |
Exceeded High | 19 | 16 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 14 | 12 | 17 | 26 | 23 | 11 | |
Scenario Percentage | 86% | 84% | 78% | 80% | 79% | 88% | 75% | 89% | 96% | 82% | 55% | |
Avg Max Increase | 8.72% | 7.25% | 8.33% | 9.15% | 9.65% | 9.09% | 10.51% | 10.87% | 11.66% | 9.40% | 8.45% | |
Max Increase | 51.79% | 26.41% | 26.16% | 20.60% | 19.67% | 21.36% | 27.58% | 25.97% | 41.58% | 27.24% | 16.25% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 15 | 16 | 17 | 22 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 14 | 16 | 15 | 16 | |
Avg Max Decline | -0.92% | -1.05% | -1.80% | -2.17% | -1.57% | -1.91% | -1.71% | -2.07% | -2.49% | -3.05% | -1.62% | |
Max Decline | -7.21% | -6.28% | -8.40% | -4.74% | -8.27% | -7.42% | -6.29% | -13.94% | -9.33% | -16.05% | -7.53% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 9 | 9 | 5 | 10 | 6 | 11 | 5 | 7 | 7 | 9 | 6 | |
2018 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.