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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Copper(CMX) as of Jun 23, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   24 25 25 23 21 23 31 21 22 22 23
Exceeded High   23 21 17 18 15 22 21 17 12 13 18
Scenario Percentage   96% 84% 68% 78% 71% 96% 68% 81% 55% 59% 78%
Avg Max Increase   9.39% 11.83% 9.61% 9.41% 10.48% 9.23% 7.84% 11.32% 17.21% 17.63% 6.49%
Max Increase   25.83% 54.10% 60.00% 24.20% 22.56% 31.09% 20.77% 42.38% 51.10% 70.42% 21.95%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 15 12 14 22 20 18 21 17 19 16
Avg Max Decline   -2.58% -2.20% -2.38% -2.09% -2.84% -1.98% -2.59% -3.92% -1.93% -2.31% -1.48%
Max Decline   -8.58% -9.41% -6.90% -15.00% -10.53% -5.49% -7.01% -11.29% -7.96% -10.87% -5.75%
Avg Days to Max Decline   7 9 7 6 8 8 11 14 8 11 4
2022 Contract Condition     Yes Yes               Yes
Action     Yes No               Not Yet
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 20 19 22 23 22 13 24 23 23 22
Penetrated Low   13 15 14 17 18 14 11 16 17 15 14
Scenario Percentage   62% 75% 74% 77% 78% 64% 85% 67% 74% 65% 64%
Avg Max Decline   8.18% 8.44% 6.05% 8.88% 10.03% 7.48% 7.91% 12.17% 9.29% 10.02% 7.71%
Max Decline   21.46% 32.33% 12.76% 18.14% 27.31% 16.02% 24.09% 51.98% 47.15% 31.79% 23.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline   12 16 21 16 13 17 17 18 14 15 15
Avg Max Increase   -1.99% -1.77% -4.70% -1.90% -1.71% -1.66% -1.53% -2.57% -2.05% -1.97% -1.71%
Max Increase   -5.53% -5.68% -14.85% -6.92% -7.86% -8.80% -8.33% -9.74% -7.57% -10.11% -4.98%
Avg Days to Max Increase   10 7 17 7 6 8 11 8 7 4 3
2022 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action   No     Yes Yes Yes No Yes No Not Yet  
High 442.30 454.60 463.25 495.50 485.95 444.00 459.00 371.35 378.35 369.25 359.30 396.00
Low 410.40 427.30 431.20 446.50 438.95 405.65 365.35 313.55 342.80 324.30 330.30 337.80
Close/Last 440.95 430.00 443.85 474.60 442.05 431.35 372.15 358.05 351.85 341.25 337.50 372.95

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