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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for December Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 45 45 45
Closed Higher   25 26 29 24 20 22 30 22 22 21 21
Exceeded High   23 25 22 16 16 21 20 17 14 15 18
Scenario Percentage   92% 96% 76% 67% 80% 95% 67% 77% 64% 71% 86%
Avg Max Increase   11.96% 12.57% 9.41% 8.90% 10.01% 9.63% 9.47% 15.52% 18.42% 15.42% 6.75%
Max Increase   36.44% 54.10% 60.00% 24.20% 30.26% 20.46% 24.52% 48.78% 51.10% 70.42% 21.95%
Avg Days To Max Increase   19 14 13 14 21 21 19 22 18 14 15
Avg Max Decline   -2.55% -2.27% -1.96% -2.43% -2.57% -1.72% -2.63% -3.08% -1.89% -2.16% -1.46%
Max Decline   -8.58% -9.41% -6.90% -15.00% -10.53% -5.49% -7.01% -11.29% -7.96% -10.87% -5.75%
Avg Days to Max Decline   9 8 6 5 7 8 11 10 7 8 4
2008 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes          
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes          
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 44 44 44 44 45 45 45
Closed Lower   19 18 14 20 23 22 13 22 23 23 24
Penetrated Low   10 12 12 14 18 14 11 15 19 15 16
Scenario Percentage   53% 67% 86% 70% 78% 64% 85% 68% 83% 65% 67%
Avg Max Decline   6.25% 8.68% 4.95% 7.45% 8.63% 6.90% 12.96% 14.57% 10.57% 10.60% 7.56%
Max Decline   11.97% 32.33% 12.22% 13.82% 23.72% 20.37% 31.84% 51.98% 47.15% 31.79% 23.16%
Avg Days To Max Decline   9 15 22 15 12 18 21 21 18 15 14
Avg Max Increase   -1.67% -1.87% -4.63% -1.69% -1.88% -1.55% -1.06% -2.09% -2.20% -2.10% -1.09%
Max Increase   -5.53% -5.68% -14.85% -6.76% -8.56% -8.80% -8.33% -9.74% -7.57% -10.11% -4.98%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 7 17 6 8 10 11 8 9 4 2
2008 Contract Condition           Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
Action           Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes
High 320.00 337.00 378.30 391.30 396.00 399.10 388.90 404.50 364.20 338.30 293.45 201.40
Low 289.75 301.55 316.80 341.80 367.00 354.00 350.00 352.30 321.00 276.50 162.65 152.15
Close/Last 305.15 327.10 375.40 375.90 383.75 358.95 385.95 364.25 338.70 287.90 182.90 162.35

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