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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Copper(CMX) as of Dec 27, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   21 24 25 24 24 26 22 20 24 30 18
Exceeded High   15 20 23 22 20 16 17 16 23 18 14
Scenario Percentage   71% 83% 92% 92% 83% 62% 77% 80% 96% 60% 78%
Avg Max Increase   10.42% 10.40% 10.15% 9.63% 10.38% 11.66% 10.33% 11.87% 8.69% 8.42% 7.49%
Max Increase   21.17% 40.41% 43.40% 25.81% 43.92% 62.57% 25.75% 22.76% 30.55% 24.78% 16.47%
Avg Days To Max Increase   23 18 15 15 15 13 13 21 17 17 18
Avg Max Decline   -2.05% -2.08% -1.69% -2.63% -2.42% -2.63% -2.29% -2.99% -2.23% -3.11% -2.00%
Max Decline   -5.37% -9.39% -8.60% -9.20% -10.00% -7.15% -15.57% -11.24% -8.78% -7.11% -5.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline   16 10 9 8 10 7 7 9 7 10 5
2023 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes Yes  
Action     Yes Yes No   Yes     Yes Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   24 21 20 20 21 19 22 25 21 14 27
Penetrated Low   16 17 12 12 15 14 18 19 15 12 16
Scenario Percentage   67% 81% 60% 60% 71% 74% 82% 76% 71% 86% 59%
Avg Max Decline   8.45% 8.83% 7.28% 8.82% 8.96% 6.53% 9.20% 10.06% 8.04% 7.22% 6.44%
Max Decline   30.54% 22.91% 17.27% 21.56% 31.92% 12.82% 18.69% 27.25% 15.59% 16.70% 24.05%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 17 17 13 18 20 17 13 20 13 18
Avg Max Increase   -1.56% -1.79% -0.39% -1.99% -1.92% -4.84% -1.93% -1.95% -3.63% -1.85% -1.69%
Max Increase   -6.68% -7.74% -2.97% -5.92% -6.10% -15.55% -7.17% -8.56% -13.83% -8.25% -6.95%
Avg Days to Max Increase   4 10 9 10 9 17 8 6 14 10 5
2023 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes   Yes Yes     Yes
Action   No       Yes   Yes No     Yes
High 358.75 350.00 388.85 394.00 434.40 421.90 416.70 418.25 401.00 396.45 401.70 402.40
Low 323.90 330.10 336.15 373.60 373.95 394.95 383.60 382.20 356.50 366.00 372.25 362.70
Close/Last 336.00 333.75 373.15 381.50 423.75 409.25 410.65 389.75 365.35 375.95 400.80 377.25

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