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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for September Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2009
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   20 21 26 26 26 31 23 20 22 29 22
Exceeded High   17 18 24 24 24 21 15 17 20 19 16
Scenario Percentage   85% 86% 92% 92% 92% 68% 65% 85% 91% 66% 73%
Avg Max Increase   7.35% 10.39% 13.07% 12.83% 11.83% 11.41% 10.02% 11.69% 9.93% 10.32% 8.01%
Max Increase   21.17% 40.41% 43.40% 38.84% 41.33% 62.57% 25.75% 35.70% 22.29% 32.22% 26.67%
Avg Days To Max Increase   19 18 19 17 13 14 14 20 18 17 17
Avg Max Decline   -2.48% -2.09% -1.38% -2.53% -2.46% -2.26% -2.52% -2.56% -2.04% -2.66% -1.65%
Max Decline   -13.50% -9.39% -7.91% -9.20% -10.00% -7.15% -15.57% -11.24% -8.78% -7.11% -5.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline   12 9 7 9 8 5 6 7 7 9 5
2008 Contract Condition         Yes Yes   Yes   Yes    
Action         Yes Yes   Yes   Yes    
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   25 24 19 18 19 14 21 25 23 15 23
Penetrated Low   17 18 14 10 12 12 15 20 15 13 13
Scenario Percentage   68% 75% 74% 56% 63% 86% 71% 80% 65% 87% 57%
Avg Max Decline   7.47% 8.08% 6.16% 6.60% 8.88% 5.90% 8.01% 8.74% 8.02% 11.50% 6.78%
Max Decline   17.60% 22.61% 17.27% 12.18% 31.92% 15.35% 15.29% 25.51% 24.31% 33.03% 17.06%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 17 16 9 16 21 16 13 20 15 17
Avg Max Increase   -1.10% -1.88% -0.88% -1.58% -1.92% -4.73% -1.63% -2.19% -3.26% -1.27% -1.12%
Max Increase   -4.33% -7.74% -4.38% -5.92% -6.10% -15.55% -6.40% -10.04% -13.83% -8.25% -6.95%
Avg Days to Max Increase   3 10 10 8 6 17 9 8 16 9 4
2008 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes     Yes   Yes   Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes No     No   Yes   Yes Yes
High 350.70 360.10 338.00 320.80 338.40 383.65 393.30 400.15 422.00 391.30 408.00 366.75
Low 313.20 341.25 295.95 289.00 304.00 319.50 344.75 369.80 355.75 351.00 353.75 321.85
Close/Last 349.60 345.35 319.05 305.75 329.70 381.25 380.60 388.25 360.70 388.25 366.15 342.95

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