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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Copper(CMX) as of May 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   21 23 18 20 25 26 26 33 23 21 23
Exceeded High   18 16 15 17 24 24 25 22 16 19 18
Scenario Percentage   86% 70% 83% 85% 96% 92% 96% 67% 70% 90% 78%
Avg Max Increase   9.00% 12.39% 8.23% 10.63% 12.96% 13.93% 13.48% 12.71% 11.02% 9.86% 7.19%
Max Increase   25.67% 28.89% 19.96% 39.30% 44.19% 41.30% 46.81% 64.86% 25.45% 21.25% 14.21%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 18 18 18 18 19 14 15 14 16 17
Avg Max Decline   -1.56% -1.85% -2.75% -2.77% -1.79% -3.25% -2.51% -2.70% -2.85% -2.97% -1.54%
Max Decline   -8.85% -7.34% -13.92% -9.72% -8.27% -10.04% -10.51% -7.75% -16.01% -12.21% -5.47%
Avg Days to Max Decline   10 9 10 9 8 9 9 7 6 8 3
2010 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes      
Action   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes      
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   23 22 27 25 20 19 19 12 22 24 22
Penetrated Low   14 18 19 19 15 10 12 10 16 17 12
Scenario Percentage   61% 82% 70% 76% 75% 53% 63% 83% 73% 71% 55%
Avg Max Decline   13.11% 9.44% 8.81% 9.26% 6.09% 7.07% 9.14% 5.80% 8.28% 10.08% 5.01%
Max Decline   49.51% 45.42% 29.97% 22.26% 16.97% 12.34% 32.42% 19.20% 16.99% 26.78% 15.23%
Avg Days To Max Decline   21 18 15 16 16 9 15 20 16 14 10
Avg Max Increase   -1.53% -1.73% -1.64% -1.92% -1.09% -1.59% -2.09% -4.70% -2.61% -2.05% 0.04%
Max Increase   -7.90% -4.58% -6.74% -8.61% -4.01% -5.83% -6.44% -15.97% -11.15% -9.43% -1.99%
Avg Days to Max Increase   11 7 3 9 10 7 7 17 11 8 4
2010 Contract Condition             Yes     Yes Yes Yes
Action             Yes     Yes Not Yet  
High 262.75 294.95 295.20 305.80 322.40 340.15 353.85 339.70 359.40 369.10 336.35 314.20
Low 218.60 272.65 270.00 269.95 293.65 311.55 305.90 285.25 330.90 333.40 290.05 301.85
Close/Last 262.75 281.85 283.25 298.60 319.55 337.05 307.55 329.85 357.20 335.35 310.45 306.30

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