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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Copper(CMX) as of Oct 20, 2019
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   23 18 20 30 21 24 18 22 25 23 22
Exceeded High   17 12 19 22 17 13 11 19 22 21 17
Scenario Percentage   74% 67% 95% 73% 81% 54% 61% 86% 88% 91% 77%
Avg Max Increase   8.07% 8.27% 8.59% 7.14% 9.62% 15.24% 16.58% 10.97% 9.45% 9.69% 7.46%
Max Increase   22.59% 19.55% 30.92% 19.39% 26.95% 42.58% 62.39% 35.25% 39.26% 26.97% 22.18%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 23 17 17 20 20 22 17 15 14 17
Avg Max Decline   -2.21% -2.39% -1.29% -2.70% -3.35% -2.63% -2.50% -3.79% -2.46% -3.26% -2.11%
Max Decline   -14.06% -8.82% -5.01% -15.30% -9.63% -10.21% -6.80% -10.31% -9.34% -13.65% -8.10%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 10 5 11 15 8 13 9 8 8 4
2019 Contract Condition   Yes         Yes   Yes   Yes Yes
Action   Yes         No   Yes   Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   44 44 44 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 26 24 13 24 21 26 23 20 22 23
Penetrated Low   17 20 14 12 16 17 19 17 13 12 12
Scenario Percentage   81% 77% 58% 92% 67% 81% 73% 74% 65% 55% 52%
Avg Max Decline   7.88% 9.07% 7.97% 10.48% 13.79% 10.21% 9.40% 10.56% 7.82% 7.80% 5.50%
Max Decline   17.75% 22.03% 18.21% 30.67% 51.51% 47.11% 31.61% 23.92% 16.93% 11.35% 27.47%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 14 17 19 20 17 17 17 16 11 15
Avg Max Increase   -1.95% -1.57% -1.64% -1.07% -1.88% -1.98% -2.35% -2.83% -1.72% -2.69% -1.43%
Max Increase   -6.88% -8.53% -8.27% -8.17% -8.95% -6.24% -9.84% -11.76% -5.95% -11.49% -4.96%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 5 11 10 7 7 5 10 10 7 4
2019 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes   Yes    
Action     Yes Yes Yes No   Yes   Yes    
High 326.25 327.15 321.55 337.35 301.15 286.45 288.80 288.70 284.80 285.80 279.70 297.65
Low 302.05 306.35 307.85 299.75 272.25 259.95 260.20 266.60 266.15 262.45 254.30 275.05
Close/Last 310.35 314.15 313.25 301.00 287.70 269.15 282.50 267.80 278.75 263.10 278.45 295.00

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