Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Scenario Study

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Lean Hogs(CME) as of Jun 30, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   22 27 29 34 22 32 24 24 28 20 20
Exceeded High   19 24 24 28 20 28 20 21 21 14 13
Scenario Percentage   86% 89% 83% 82% 91% 88% 83% 88% 75% 70% 65%
Avg Max Increase   5.63% 6.08% 6.08% 5.80% 8.15% 8.44% 10.66% 8.75% 9.35% 8.42% 4.12%
Max Increase   10.46% 13.33% 17.72% 19.47% 22.94% 24.71% 30.88% 20.93% 30.49% 30.02% 10.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 23 20 19 17 20 18 17 18 6 8
Avg Max Decline   -1.93% -1.77% -1.82% -2.84% -1.11% -2.03% -1.85% -2.08% -2.29% -1.44% -1.00%
Max Decline   -6.32% -6.77% -5.05% -8.98% -3.43% -7.89% -5.54% -7.21% -7.13% -3.75% -4.18%
Avg Days to Max Decline   11 12 9 12 7 10 7 9 13 3 2
2023 Contract Condition       Yes   Yes           Yes
Action       Yes   No           Not Yet
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   22 18 16 11 23 13 21 21 17 25 25
Penetrated Low   10 15 9 7 16 12 17 17 15 18 13
Scenario Percentage   45% 83% 56% 64% 70% 92% 81% 81% 88% 72% 52%
Avg Max Decline   4.82% 4.22% 3.78% 7.16% 5.60% 8.62% 10.19% 8.76% 8.99% 9.24% 4.36%
Max Decline   15.27% 12.12% 6.64% 14.74% 14.26% 20.65% 24.28% 24.29% 25.65% 27.57% 13.31%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 17 15 14 14 21 15 14 20 12 7
Avg Max Increase   -2.34% -2.68% -1.59% -1.22% -2.42% -2.69% -1.75% -1.52% -3.70% -1.74% -0.55%
Max Increase   -6.67% -6.72% -3.32% -4.47% -7.12% -8.90% -7.94% -6.31% -11.23% -5.60% -3.86%
Avg Days to Max Increase   12 8 12 5 12 19 7 6 8 6 4
2023 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes Not Yet  
High 101.280 103.030 105.680 105.750 107.300 109.980 109.580 107.730 105.350 95.150 93.480 96.300
Low 97.150 98.300 96.130 95.130 102.430 103.100 101.700 100.700 90.000 87.730 74.030 80.900
Close/Last 101.200 101.000 97.180 105.680 103.880 109.680 104.150 104.100 94.030 93.680 83.330 95.650

Banner

Login

Main Menu

MRCI Online

Free Links

Newsflash

The world will still run for decades on fossil-fuel energy --- crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas.  Buy 'em?  Sell 'em?  When?  Just since 2008, crude oil traded at $147/barrel, collapsed to -$40.32/barrel in 2020, ran to higher than $130 in early 2022, and the traded less than half that in May!

MRCI's newest special report is complete with seasonal patterns & weekly charts: for each delivery month and several spreads against each; for product spreads; for cash & basis; and for 3/2/1 and 2/1/1 crack spreads.  Better yet, this 284-page volume presents 190 seasonal & spread strategies to anticipate throughout the next 12-months. Order your copy today! https://www.mrci.com/products/energy