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MRCI's Scenario Study
MRCI's
Scenario
SM
Study
Scenario
SM
Study for August Gold(CMX) as of May 31, 2010
Condition 1
: Higher Monthly Close.
Action
---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Tested Years
34
34
34
34
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
Closed Higher
23
13
17
17
15
15
12
14
16
11
15
Exceeded High
13
10
13
15
11
9
8
9
12
8
11
Scenario Percentage
57%
77%
76%
88%
73%
60%
67%
64%
75%
73%
73%
Avg Max Increase
9.17%
6.91%
13.13%
12.13%
6.04%
3.71%
8.66%
7.65%
6.66%
6.67%
6.98%
Max Increase
22.72%
14.41%
103.03%
58.22%
11.03%
7.05%
24.84%
13.80%
25.41%
14.18%
25.62%
Avg Days To Max Increase
16
11
16
15
14
13
16
17
13
14
12
Avg Max Decline
-1.00%
-1.05%
-1.73%
-1.47%
-2.22%
-1.08%
-0.89%
-1.09%
-1.70%
-1.29%
-1.15%
Max Decline
-4.16%
-3.13%
-8.14%
-8.72%
-6.76%
-2.68%
-1.97%
-5.22%
-4.89%
-4.32%
-3.56%
Avg Days to Max Decline
10
2
8
7
7
2
6
7
6
12
3
2010 Contract Condition
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Action
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Yes
Not Yet
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Moore Research Center, Inc.
All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2
: Lower Monthly Close.
Action
---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Tested Years
34
34
34
34
35
35
35
35
35
35
35
Closed Lower
11
21
17
17
20
20
23
21
19
23
20
Penetrated Low
8
18
12
15
16
18
20
17
16
13
15
Scenario Percentage
73%
86%
71%
88%
80%
90%
87%
81%
84%
57%
75%
Avg Max Decline
4.32%
4.84%
7.93%
7.41%
5.18%
6.61%
4.81%
4.70%
6.73%
5.79%
3.79%
Max Decline
8.59%
14.35%
25.16%
21.14%
20.15%
29.37%
10.55%
14.94%
19.39%
18.48%
14.55%
Avg Days To Max Decline
14
14
18
18
14
14
17
18
15
10
13
Avg Max Increase
-0.91%
-2.05%
-2.04%
-0.33%
-2.07%
-1.65%
-1.61%
-2.57%
-1.91%
-1.25%
-0.86%
Max Increase
-2.05%
-7.54%
-5.97%
-2.71%
-12.81%
-8.60%
-7.05%
-5.92%
-4.86%
-3.89%
-5.29%
Avg Days to Max Increase
11
9
12
9
9
9
10
12
5
8
3
2010 Contract Condition
Yes
Yes
Yes
Action
Yes
Yes
No
High
976.4
1026.5
1076.1
1198.8
1230.7
1162.3
1132.5
1147.3
1183.3
1251.4
1230.6
Low
940.6
956.4
996.4
1051.6
1079.0
1077.7
1050.0
1087.8
1114.0
1157.6
1211.6
Close/Last
958.7
1014.3
1044.9
1185.9
1100.1
1085.6
1121.1
1115.7
1182.1
1215.0
1226.9
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