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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for August Feeder Cattle(CME) as of May 08, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years   23 42 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   12 19 27 29 28 26 19 24 26 28 28
Exceeded High   10 13 24 28 25 18 17 21 21 27 22
Scenario Percentage   83% 68% 89% 97% 89% 69% 89% 88% 81% 96% 79%
Avg Max Increase   4.39% 3.99% 4.24% 3.92% 4.40% 6.38% 5.49% 5.18% 6.06% 5.55% 3.39%
Max Increase   7.56% 9.20% 11.09% 13.83% 11.01% 22.87% 22.24% 16.08% 13.45% 12.08% 10.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase   13 20 20 16 17 17 18 20 19 17 15
Avg Max Decline   -1.12% -1.49% -1.32% -1.12% -1.07% -1.32% -1.48% -1.82% -2.30% -1.45% -1.02%
Max Decline   -2.86% -3.21% -4.34% -5.57% -3.12% -4.38% -5.63% -6.81% -7.20% -4.71% -2.83%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 8 11 10 6 6 11 11 9 6 4
2024 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes Yes            
Action   No     Yes Yes            
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul
Tested Years   23 42 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   10 23 18 16 17 19 26 21 19 17 17
Penetrated Low   9 13 11 8 13 16 22 13 8 13 9
Scenario Percentage   90% 57% 61% 50% 76% 84% 85% 62% 42% 76% 53%
Avg Max Decline   4.64% 6.08% 7.05% 6.10% 7.77% 7.94% 6.58% 5.37% 7.66% 6.00% 2.64%
Max Decline   15.04% 15.88% 15.49% 10.70% 21.82% 22.27% 14.64% 12.20% 12.42% 12.18% 5.65%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 16 18 16 18 19 15 19 23 16 8
Avg Max Increase   -2.25% -1.07% -0.44% -1.31% -1.32% -1.16% -1.24% -2.37% -2.48% -2.20% -1.07%
Max Increase   -10.70% -4.41% -1.54% -2.95% -5.44% -4.89% -7.40% -8.42% -5.97% -6.78% -3.67%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 8 4 6 6 6 7 8 13 6 3
2024 Contract Condition     Yes Yes     Yes Yes Yes Yes    
Action     Yes Yes     Yes Yes Not Yet      
High 266.580 282.930 278.500 263.500 251.000 267.700 272.200 271.500 261.800 257.480    
Low 266.580 268.930 256.000 237.700 229.500 248.300 264.020 255.530 243.280 250.280    
Close/Last 266.580 276.080 258.180 244.200 249.850 266.750 266.650 258.830 255.500 252.400    

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