Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Scenario Study

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Eurodollars(CME) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   40 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
Closed Higher   22 23 26 25 29 27 26 18 22 23 19
Exceeded High   20 18 21 21 25 25 17 15 20 17 11
Scenario Percentage   91% 78% 81% 84% 86% 93% 65% 83% 91% 74% 58%
Avg Max Increase   0.58% 0.56% 0.61% 0.62% 0.65% 0.50% 0.59% 0.70% 0.34% 0.20% 0.17%
Max Increase   2.51% 1.65% 2.42% 2.18% 4.13% 3.01% 1.74% 1.83% 1.05% 1.05% 0.76%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 18 15 17 16 13 19 19 15 10 7
Avg Max Decline   -0.07% -0.14% -0.11% -0.08% -0.17% -0.12% -0.07% -0.13% -0.12% -0.05% -0.02%
Max Decline   -0.24% -0.75% -0.51% -0.29% -0.96% -0.54% -0.23% -0.54% -0.83% -0.16% -0.13%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 7 10 9 9 5 7 8 9 4 2
2023 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes       Yes Yes Yes  
Action     No   No       Yes Yes Yes  
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   40 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41
Closed Lower   18 18 15 16 11 13 14 21 17 18 22
Penetrated Low   16 11 5 9 6 8 11 14 9 14 16
Scenario Percentage   89% 61% 33% 56% 55% 62% 79% 67% 53% 78% 73%
Avg Max Decline   0.67% 0.34% 0.23% 0.36% 0.73% 0.49% 0.31% 0.24% 0.39% 0.23% 0.12%
Max Decline   2.28% 0.94% 0.54% 1.20% 1.94% 1.18% 1.12% 0.73% 1.10% 0.93% 0.24%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 13 13 17 15 17 18 19 19 8 6
Avg Max Increase   -0.12% -0.19% -0.10% -0.15% -0.13% -0.08% -0.07% -0.05% -0.05% -0.06% -0.03%
Max Increase   -0.43% -0.64% -0.19% -0.50% -0.37% -0.17% -0.18% -0.14% -0.24% -0.23% -0.10%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 6 9 8 5 9 4 3 7 4 1
2023 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes       Yes
Action   Yes   No   Yes Yes Yes       Yes
High 98.385 97.075 96.930 96.755 96.685 96.605 95.970 95.450 94.875 95.025 95.030 95.055
Low 96.820 96.450 96.330 95.590 96.090 95.820 94.925 94.680 94.495 94.810 94.770 94.877
Close/Last 97.040 96.545 96.765 96.380 96.530 95.870 95.295 94.750 94.840 94.925 95.015 94.927

Banner

Login

Newsflash

The world will still run for decades on fossil-fuel energy --- crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas.  Buy 'em?  Sell 'em?  When?  Just since 2008, crude oil traded at $147/barrel, collapsed to -$40.32/barrel in 2020, ran to higher than $130 in early 2022, and the traded less than half that in May!

MRCI's newest special report is complete with seasonal patterns & weekly charts: for each delivery month and several spreads against each; for product spreads; for cash & basis; and for 3/2/1 and 2/1/1 crack spreads.  Better yet, this 284-page volume presents 190 seasonal & spread strategies to anticipate throughout the next 12-months. Order your copy today! https://www.mrci.com/products/energy