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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for July Corn(CBOT) as of Dec 06, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   20 18 26 18 25 23 24 25 16 21 16
Exceeded High   12 17 16 10 20 21 19 24 12 16 12
Scenario Percentage   60% 94% 62% 56% 80% 91% 79% 96% 75% 76% 75%
Avg Max Increase   8.54% 9.95% 8.65% 11.43% 8.28% 8.13% 8.00% 8.11% 8.56% 11.31% 6.65%
Max Increase   30.68% 38.35% 18.35% 28.80% 19.55% 21.60% 26.54% 34.29% 24.95% 60.09% 16.99%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 15 23 16 16 18 12 14 18 12 7
Avg Max Decline   -2.79% -2.38% -2.33% -3.32% -2.02% -1.64% -3.35% -2.34% -5.04% -3.70% -0.61%
Max Decline   -9.08% -8.83% -11.93% -8.20% -8.20% -4.31% -16.09% -10.79% -12.89% -10.06% -4.16%
Avg Days to Max Decline   13 6 9 13 9 8 9 9 14 7 2
2024 Contract Condition       Yes         Yes      
Action       No         Yes      
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   25 27 19 27 20 21 21 20 29 24 29
Penetrated Low   17 22 18 21 16 20 14 17 26 21 16
Scenario Percentage   68% 81% 95% 78% 80% 95% 67% 85% 90% 88% 55%
Avg Max Decline   7.05% 6.42% 6.05% 5.51% 4.95% 6.41% 6.63% 7.66% 8.79% 8.65% 5.58%
Max Decline   35.76% 29.27% 26.37% 16.28% 14.84% 13.49% 17.05% 13.95% 20.53% 21.00% 15.62%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 22 14 12 17 18 15 18 20 12 7
Avg Max Increase   -1.32% -2.39% -1.54% -1.56% -1.99% -2.13% -2.73% -2.03% -4.17% -2.73% -0.75%
Max Increase   -4.02% -10.86% -6.15% -6.87% -5.95% -6.56% -4.86% -5.12% -16.67% -9.22% -3.16%
Avg Days to Max Increase   5 13 9 8 10 12 14 10 14 6 2
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes   Yes Yes Yes No   Yes Yes Not Yet
High 587.25 545.75 517.50 533.25 514.25 512.50 493.75 467.00 460.00 454.50 475.50 460.50
Low 504.25 501.25 495.50 505.00 493.25 491.25 456.50 422.25 433.75 435.75 443.75 390.50
Close/Last 535.00 506.50 505.50 508.50 504.25 494.00 466.50 441.25 454.50 446.75 446.25 397.25

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