MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for November Crude Oil(NYM) as of Dec 27, 2023 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep |
| Tested Years | 36 | 36 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | |
| Closed Higher | 17 | 18 | 19 | 24 | 27 | 28 | 20 | 21 | 26 | 22 | 22 | |
| Exceeded High | 14 | 18 | 16 | 21 | 25 | 23 | 16 | 19 | 24 | 18 | 17 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 82% | 100% | 84% | 88% | 93% | 82% | 80% | 90% | 92% | 82% | 77% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 9.35% | 10.02% | 12.60% | 10.64% | 9.41% | 8.47% | 10.35% | 10.10% | 12.67% | 11.67% | 5.82% | |
| Max Increase | 14.39% | 26.10% | 30.02% | 23.67% | 21.11% | 30.62% | 19.30% | 21.00% | 85.48% | 52.07% | 11.78% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 14 | 19 | 16 | 20 | 17 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 19 | 14 | 12 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.62% | -1.75% | -2.03% | -1.90% | -2.80% | -2.26% | -1.93% | -2.47% | -3.03% | -3.58% | -2.50% | |
| Max Decline | -7.78% | -7.26% | -9.78% | -13.57% | -10.64% | -6.56% | -7.56% | -14.99% | -15.09% | -14.66% | -14.33% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 5 | 8 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 10 | 6 | 8 | 9 | 9 | 3 | |
| 2023 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Action | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet | ||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
