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ScenarioSM Study for October Crude Oil(NYM) as of Dec 27, 2023 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug |
Tested Years | 34 | 37 | 38 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | |
Closed Higher | 13 | 17 | 19 | 20 | 23 | 27 | 27 | 20 | 21 | 26 | 22 | |
Exceeded High | 8 | 14 | 19 | 18 | 21 | 25 | 22 | 15 | 18 | 23 | 13 | |
Scenario Percentage | 62% | 82% | 100% | 90% | 91% | 93% | 81% | 75% | 86% | 88% | 59% | |
Avg Max Increase | 8.51% | 9.68% | 10.49% | 11.84% | 10.72% | 9.72% | 9.10% | 11.12% | 10.68% | 11.39% | 8.78% | |
Max Increase | 13.15% | 15.18% | 26.15% | 34.22% | 27.44% | 22.54% | 30.51% | 19.08% | 21.40% | 59.28% | 23.72% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 21 | 14 | 17 | 14 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 15 | 13 | 13 | |
Avg Max Decline | -0.99% | -1.80% | -1.61% | -2.13% | -1.88% | -2.97% | -2.35% | -2.20% | -1.97% | -2.30% | -0.81% | |
Max Decline | -1.88% | -8.05% | -7.95% | -10.00% | -13.93% | -10.86% | -7.80% | -8.52% | -10.10% | -13.87% | -4.69% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 4 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 10 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 5 | 3 | |
2023 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Action | Yes | No | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.